Weather

395 
fxus64 kjan 101912 
afdjan 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson MS 
210 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Discussion...latest satellite imagery shows that the region was 
under the influence of the upper ridge. Latest visible imagery 
shows the strato cumulus across the region as the result of low level 
easterly flow. 


For tonight area model soundings shows that the clouds will decrease 
across the west half of the arklamiss. In the east half expect partly 
cloudy skies this evening. Soundings also show that some moisture 
will be trapped in the low levels for some more areas of fog and low 
clouds once again. So expect the best chance of fog to materialize 
after midnight. Some of it will be rather dense with visibilities 
less then one quarter mile. It will be a mild night with low level 
easterly flow bringing in some moisture. Readings will be in the 
upper 50s to lower 60s. Went close to MOS guidance. 


For Saturday the areas of fog and low clouds will quickly lift by 
midmorning...but expect the fog and low clouds to hold the longest 
near rivers and low lying areas. Skies will be partly cloudy as the 
upper ridge remains dominate across the region. Easterly flow of 
moisture in the low levels will help develop stratocu from the east 
during the day. This will help to hold down temperatures slightly mainly in 
the east. Highs will range from the lower 80s east to middle 80s west. 
Went close to adjmav guidance the highs. 850 temperatures will be around 
15c. 


For Saturday night...low level easterly flow will continue 
..which will aid in partly cloudy skies during the night. 
This combine with warm low level temperatures of the mean upper ridge will 
help lows to become more moderate. Lows will be generally in the 
lower 60s. There will probably be some more patchy fog during the 
night. 


For Sunday-Sunday night...our bout of dry weather will end on Sunday 
night as some light showers moves in from the east. Our chances of 
rain will be aided by an inverted upper trough coming from the east. 
Precipitable water will be around 1.8 inches for Sunday night. 
Instability will be too weak for any chance of convection for Sunday 
night. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy during the period. 
Followed close to mav guidance with highs from around 80 east to 
middle 80s west. The clouds should once again affect mainly the 
eastern sections as far as high temperatures are concern. Lows will be even 
more moderate with moisture coming from the east in low level flow. 
Readings will be in the lower to middle 60s. 850 temperatures during the 
day will warm up to around 15c./17/ 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions with scattered-broken cumulus of 3-5k 
feet through 23z then generally sky clear through 07z. After 08z more IFR 
stratus should develop from east to west with fog mainly 10-15z... 
especially east of I-55. Localized dense fog could again occur along 
rivers/streams for LIFR visibilities below 1/2sm at times early on 
Saturday. Conditions will gradually improve 15-17z with VFR 
returning afterward. /40/ 


&& 


/previous discussion...358 am CDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 


Long term...Saturday night through Friday...the weekend will 
continue to be dry with upper level ridging centered over the lower 
Mississippi Valley region. Low level high pressure will also 
influence the arklamiss region as it is centered to the northeast of 
the region. For Monday into Tuesday there will be an inverted 
trough moving west around the upper high. In the meantime the 
surface high will shift to the south to become positioned more to 
the east of the County warning forecast area...allowing more southeasterly flow to aid in a slight 
increase in moisture over the area. These features will allow rain 
chances to return to the arklamiss region by Monday into Tuesday. By 
Wednesday there will be a front located to the northwest of the County warning forecast area 
that will slowly be moving toward the area. This will bring rain 
chances to at least the northwestern portion of the area for 
Wednesday...and moving through the entire area on Thursday as the 
front slowly moves through the County warning forecast area. The area should begin to dry 
out by Friday. The exact timing and position of this front is still 
a little uncertain as models are not in the best agreement. Overall 
have remained with gui for probability of precipitation through the extended. 


Temperatures through the extended will be a little warmer than 
climatology with more southerly winds expected to pick up by the beginning 
of the work week. Have remained pretty much with gui for 
temperatures which gives lower to middle 80s for highs and lower to 
middle 60s for lows. The exception will be Friday once the front 
moves through and brings cooler temperatures into the arklamiss 
region. /14/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Jackson 61 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 2 
Meridian 60 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 11 
Vicksburg 60 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 1 
Hattiesburg 61 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 4 
Natchez 61 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Greenville 60 86 62 83 / 0 0 0 2 
Greenwood 61 84 62 82 / 0 0 0 3 


&& 


Jan watches/warnings/advisories... 
MS...none. 
La...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$