Weather

725 
fxus63 ksgf 061953 
afdsgf 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Springfield MO 
253 PM CDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion... 


Short term (tonight and tomorrow)... 


The storm system and associated cold front now over the central 
states will shift east over the next 24 hours. While the system 
has plenty of shear available with brn shear near 50 m2/s2 and 
0-1km storm relative helicity up to 300 MS/s2 the instability is 
rather weak with only around 400 j/kg available to work with. If 
the cloud cover remains much of the region will likely avoid 
severe storms. With that said there is an outside chance that an 
isolated thunderstorm could be strong to severe with the main 
concern being high winds and possibly some hail. 


Long term (tuesday night through monday)... 


There were significant differences in the long range models with 
the GFS being much more progressive with the system for the end of 
the period than that of the European model (ecmwf). With the inconsistencies in the 
GFS over the past few runs decided to go nearer the European model (ecmwf) for the 
extended forecast. This will keep temperatures more mild as the 
region will see southeast surface winds into the weekend. This 
should keep the Ozarks dry and mild. With the uncertainties in the 
models for the end of the week...did keep slight chances of a 
shower or isolated thunderstorm but the confidence in this 
occurring is fairly minimal. If the GFS does pan out however...the 
region could experience temperatures below normal for this time of 
year and slightly better rain chances. 


In the wake of the eastward moving upper level trough...the region 
will see a brief period of semi zonal flow with a transition to 
southwesterly flow as a fairly potent system digs over the western 
portion of the country. This upper level system will be the 
weather maker for the end of the weekend into next week as it 
pushes a cold front through the region late Sunday into Monday of 
next week. 


Hatch 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 18z tafs...main concern for this taf cycle will be with 
convection as upper level trough shifts east across the County Warning Area. Will 
likely see convection begin by 20-22z at terminal locations and 
should see ceilings drop into the 3000-4000 feet range and 
visibilities into the 3-5sm range. Overnight ceilings will likely 
dip into the 700-1500 foot range with MVFR visibilities. 
Convection will likely continue through the night into most of the 
morning before ending west to east by late morning early afternoon Tuesday. 


Lindenberg 




&& 


Sgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$