Weather

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Area forecast discussion...updated aviation 
National Weather Service St Louis MO 
1146 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Discussion... 
/220 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 
deep upper low continues to dig across the western Continental U.S.. strong 
middle/upper level jet streak will rotate around base of the trough 
tonight. The large upper low will move east across the intermountain 
west...further amplifying the upper flow overhead as the downstream 
ridge remains anchored across the southeast Continental U.S.. 


Surface trough of low pressure will shift slowly northeast from The 
Rockies into the High Plains on Sunday. Attendant cold front will 
begin moving southeast across the Central Plains and toward the 
Midwest. Medium range model guidance continues to indicate a frontal 
passage across the County Warning Area Monday night/Tuesday morning. Majority of the 
large scale ascent looks to remain on the cool side of the front 
..resulting in a mostly Post-frontal rainfall event. I can't rule 
out some convection along and ahead of the front...but this will 
depend on timing of frontal passage...available instability...and convergence 
along the front. 


Seasonal cool autumn weather returns behind the front as several 
reinforcing highs move into the middle-Mississippi River valley to 
round out next week. 


A Hydro side note: model guidance is pointing toward a heavy 
rainfall event stretching from eastern New Mexico through central 
Kansas and into northwest Iowa early next week. This is a result of 
the slug of tropical moisture from Hurricane Norbert being lifted 
northeast ahead of the upper low. Still too early to determine the 
effects this will have on the Missouri River...but certainly 
something to keep an eye on. 


Cvking 


&& 


Aviation... 
/1028 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 
for the 06z tafs...winds will be southeasterly tonight and become south-southeast 
tomorrow. Sites should be VFR with the exception of sus. Current 
cloud cover has delayed fog development some...but visbys should go 
down later tonight. Expect only some cumulus to develop which will 
dissipate shortly after sunset. 


Tilly 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
St Louis 59 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 5 
Quincy 53 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 5 
Columbia 54 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 5 
Jefferson City 54 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 5 
Salem 52 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 5 
Farmington 51 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 5 


&& 


Lsx watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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