Weather

856 
fxus63 kmpx 290839 
afdmpx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
339 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion... 


A northern stream trough stretching from southern Manitoba across 
northern Minnesota/WI at 08z...will shift eastward across Ontario today 
and tonight. Meanwhile...a weak surface trough over the 
western/central Dakotas will pivot east across northern/central Minnesota...and 
sag south and east into southern Minnesota by 00z Saturday. A few echoes 
are visible on the 08z kmvx radar. Most of the returns appear to 
be clouds at this point...although light rain/drizzle was reported 
across extreme northwest Minnesota near Hallock. This area of 
clouds/precipitation correlates well with a pocket of lowering 
condensational pressure deficits and isentropic upglide on the NAM 
305-310k surface. This area is forecast to become less pronounced 
as it shifts eastward today. Have maintained a dry forecast...but 
increased clouds across the northern/eastern County Warning Area...consistent 
with the diminishing trend. 


A weak high pressure ridge and light winds temporarily settle in 
tonight...until the pressure gradient tightens dramatically on 
Sunday ahead of a trough over the northern plains. Temperatures 
will moderate gradually over the next couple of days...as middle 
level ridging dominates and 850mb temperatures climb into the +10c 
to +15c degree range. Dry conditions are expected locally through 
the Holiday weekend...with the main weather headlines confined to 
the south with Tropical Storm Gustav. The amplified pattern has 
yielded a slower arrival of the next trough/front...which was 
previously expected to arrive on the Labor Day Holiday. Although it 
now appears that the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until 
Tuesday...windy conditions are expected on Sunday into 
Monday as the trough approaches. 


&& 


Aviation.../06z taf issuance/ 


Quiet weather conds with surface hi pressure nosing into the area. Clear skies 
should prevail...although some middle/hi clouds could drift across axn/stc 
for a time middle to late morning tmrw. Although guidance is not carrying any 
visibility reductions in fog for rnh or eau...with wet soils...clear 
skies...and light winds tonight...still cannot rule out MVFR visibilities...so 
left the tempos at those two sites. Winds will increase from the SW 
tomorrow...with gusts expeceted at axn/stc/rwf. 


&& 


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ls/kat