Weather

693 
fxus63 kmpx 110350 
afdmpx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
1050 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Update... 


Low level cool air has undercut the boundary with mainly pressure 
rises over the area. Rain cooled air off to the north has helped 
as well. Remaining isentropic lift as indicated on 300 surface... 
could cause a few showers far north part of County Warning Area rest of night. 


&& 


Aviation.../06z taf issuance/ 


Generally VFR conditions during the forecast period...except vicinity 
kaxn where MVFR ceilings could develop...due to frontal boundary in 
the area. Remaining isentropic lift overnight could cause a few 
showers in this area as well. Otherwise occasional broken ceilings 050-060 
could develop in the weak warm advection pattern over the Minnesota 
forecast area overnight into Saturday morning. An upper level wave 
is then forecast to move across mainly the western parts of the 
area by Saturday afternoon and evening causing a few showers vicinity 
kaxn...kstc Saturday evening. Small chance thunder but too isolated 
to include in taf at this point. Mainly middle level ceilings Saturday 
afternoon into the evening for all sites except kaxn and kstc as 
frontal boundary remains over the northwest third of the forecast area. 


&& 


Previous discussion.../issued at 238 PM CDT Friday Oct 10 2008/ 


Deformation axis and enhanced cloud tops continued to lift north 
over northwest Minnesota...while a warm front lifts north over central 
Minnesota this afternoon. Clouds had scoured out over southeast half of 
the state...while cloud hold nearly stationary over our far 
western counties of County Warning Area. Clouds expected to fill back over the 
area later tonight and over the weekend. 


Models are in general agreement with longwave trough hover the 
western half of the nation. Low pressure center is forecast to dig 
into the southwest U.S. As longwave ridge retrogress back over the 
central section of Continental U.S.. this will put the upper Midwest into a 
split upper airflow regime with mild and dry weather conditions 
persisting through Sunday over far southeast section near Eau 
Claire Wisconsin with rain showers moving back over far northwest 
portion of the forecast Saturday afternoon/evening. The best 
chance of rain and thunderstorms is foreseen for Sunday into 
Monday night as upper low lifts northeast into the northern 
rockies. Previous forecast thinking seem reasonable...so made very 
few changes. 


Upper level trough moves east over the western Great Lakes and 
east of County Warning Area Tuesday evening. So probability of precipitation/weather mainly confined to 
eastern section of the forecast. Dry out Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 




Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Jvm/jpr