Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
316 am CDT Monday Sep 8 2008 


Discussion... 
the area remains in deep cyclonic flow aloft...and another 
shortwave will move through the area today. Models are in overall 
good agreement initially...with the NAM a bit too slow to move the 
surface boundary through on Thursday. The GFS and all other models move the 
front through the area by 12z Thursday...and will side with the GFS once 
again this morning. 


For today...some patchy morning fog is possible in all areas...and 
will mention through 14z. A shortwave and moisture in the 800-700mb 
layer will overspread the area today. This coupled with low 
convective temperatures in the middle/upper 50s...and some lift per Omega 
fields will mean a low chance for a few showers. Most areas will 
remain dry though...but expect some shallow convection with no 
thunder expected. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than 
Sunday...with more clouds expected and slightly cooler temperatures to 
start the day. 


For tonight...surface high will move into the eastern areas by 12z 
Tuesday. This will mean the threat for some patchy frost in the 
east...although the boundary layer should remain moist enough to 
preclude any headlines. 


For Tuesday...return flow develops and spreads east through the day. 
Expect plenty of sunshine with just a few middle/high clouds and 
temperatures recovering to near normal with southerly winds increasing. 


On Wednesday/Wednesday night...warm/moist advection will develop and precipitable waters  
will increase over 1 inch. A fairly strong shortwave will interact 
with a surface boundary...and a coupled jet with upper level divergence 
increasing along with dynamic lift. This will mean the threat for 
showers and a few thunderstorms in all areas. The best...albeit 
weak...instability will be in the far south so the best threat for 
thunder will be here. 


On Thursday...the area should quickly dry out behind the 
boundary...with subsidence and precipitable waters  falling below an inch. 
Thermal fields do not cool much though...so temperatures should remain 
near normal. 


For Fri-sun...temperatures will start out slightly above normal before 
cooling behind a cold front this weekend. There may be a low 
chance for some convection with the front Sat into Sunday...but it 
may be a dry frontal passage with moisture return getting harder as we head 
into middle September. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR ceilings (around 5000ft) will move into all taf sites by late 
morning...with fairly light west/northwest winds. Can/T rule out some patchy 
fog around dawn this morning at all sites with light winds and a 
moist boundary layer...and will monitor for inclusion in the 12z taf 
set. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Dk