Weather

680 
fxus63 kdlh 070848 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
348 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion...main short term focus is precipitation chances. 


A weak cold front was situated from NC Minnesota through wc Minnesota...and 
then into South Dakota. Scattered showers continued to be found in 
the vicinity of the front and as a result of a vorticity maximum moving 
across the region. Temperatures this early morning ranged from the 
middle 30s across portions of the Iron Range to the middle 50s near 
kpbh. 


The 00z models are in generally decent agreement regarding synoptic 
scale details today...but do differ somewhat regarding smaller 
scale trends. The GFS has a pretty decent handle on the current 
situation...and will closely follow for today. Based on current 
radar and GFS...will hit the Brainerd lakes area hardest this 
morning. By midday...the front will have moved into northwest WI...but 
cool air and a digging upper level shortwave will set off more 
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Have 
trimmed back probability of precipitation in the far south and west for the afternoon... 
but have kept likely for most areas. Analysis of BUFKIT and 
forecast soundings indicates the potential for some large hail and 
gusty winds with a few of the storms this afternoon. The best chance 
would be in the eastern 2/3 of the County Warning Area. Steep lapse rates and deep 
layer forcing ahead of the shortwave will contribute to the 
marginal hail potential. 


The showers and thunderstorms should wind down tonight...due to 
loss of heating but may take a while to completely dissipate. Have 
added patchy frost to the northern third of the County Warning Area for tonight 
and may need to expand on this in later forecasts. The main 
question is the speed of clearing...but so far it looks good. 


Another shortwave moves in from the Dakotas on Monday and Monday 
night...along with moisture from the system to the south. As a 
result...have added a chance of showers Monday afternoon/evening. 
Could see some more patchy frost by Monday night...although there 
may be a bit more cloud cover during this time. 


Upper level ridging will bring quieter weather by Tuesday...but 
still looks like another chance of rain later Wednesday into 
Thursday night. The forecast period will start out a bit cool with 
some moderation with time. 


&& 


Aviation...showers and isolated -tsra and VFR/MVFR ceilings will 
prevail today...along with areas of fog and IFR/LIFR visibilities through 
14z. A weak front currently entering the northwest forecast area will track east over 
the western Great Lakes region today. The front will spread the 
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain and decreasing ceilings ewrd through the day. High pressure 
then builds into the upper Midwest overnight...with widespread VFR 
conditions expected after 06z. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 62 44 60 41 / 50 20 20 20 
inl 59 37 59 36 / 60 20 20 20 
brd 63 41 60 40 / 60 10 20 20 
hyr 64 39 60 36 / 50 30 20 20 
asx 64 42 61 38 / 50 40 20 20 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


Dap/graning