Weather

228 
fxus63 kdlh 292010 
afddlh 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
310 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 




..warm and breezy pattern for Holiday weekend... 






Discussion...last migratory shortwave pushing quickly across County Warning Area 
this afternoon. Convection has been limited to north of 
international border. It appears that boundary layer is just too dry to 
sustain decent cloud growth in most locations. Area of middle level 
cloud...associated with middle level dewpoint axis at 70h...will swing 
quickly across entire eastern half of County Warning Area remainder of afternoon. Only 
an isolated shower possible. Clearing tonight and decoupling 
should allow very good radiational cooling. Dropped mins below 
guidance over interior wisc zones as center of surface high ends up 
just east of this location by 12z. Have left patchy fog in for 
now but confidence is not high. GFS/BUFKIT ups fog profiles show 
fog developing around 8z. 


Tomorrow...pleasant day as surface high moves east and southerly flow 
is established. Exception will be near lake where a light southeast flow 
is forecast by nam12...shifting to NE late afternoon into evening. 


Extended...sun through Wednesday...anomalous middle level ridge will position 
itself near eastern Great Lakes. Warming trend will increase sun/Monday as 
middle level ridge amplifies and 850 mb temperatures increase to 18/20c 
sun/Mon/Tue. Temperatures will reach middle 80s to low 90s across County Warning Area. 
Pattern confidence decreases by Tuesday as model differences arise 
in breakdown of Great Lakes ridge due to oncoming middle level trough. 
Buildup of thermodynamics Tuesday may set the stage for 
significant precip/convection. Should see a significant 
instability axis develop just west of County Warning Area early Tuesday and then 
drift slowly east by Wednesday morning. Precipitable waters  increase to 3 S.D. 
Above average ahead of oncoming divergence/lift. Strengthening rrq 
of upper jet provides a period of ascent as upper trough 
translates east over Great Lakes. Remains of Gustav will try to 
interact with northern branch of westerlies but no ability to pinpoint 
potential are of increased quantitative precipitation forecast at this time. 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered altostratus will quickly transition to sky clear by this 
evening as a middle level trough moves east and out of the region. West 
and northwest winds late this afternoon will become light to calm overnight 
as high pressure builds. Radiation fog is once again expected late 
tonight due to a combination of clear skies...calm winds...and 
yesterday's rainfall...mainly at khyr and khib. A very dry airmass 
is expected on Sat with warming aloft. This should limit cumulus 
development leading to a mainly sunny day with southerly to 
southeasterly winds. 




&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 43 77 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 
inl 41 80 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 
brd 45 84 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 
hyr 42 83 57 88 / 10 0 0 0 
asx 45 80 56 84 / 10 0 0 0 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 


Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 


$$ 


Cannon/eom