Weather

251 
fxus63 kapx 101934 
afdapx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan 
334 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Synopsis.../issued at 313 PM/ 


High pressure will move from the Great Lakes to the East Coast... 
providing warm and dry weather through the weekend. A cold front will 
move through Monday night and Tuesday...rain is likely with cooler 
weather to follow. 


Jz 


&& 


Short term.../issued at 313 PM/...tonight 


I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, but high pressure 
will again dominate the surface pattern, keeping northern Michigan 
dry. With the gradient expected to start to turn southerly 
overnight, am expecting that the temperatures will drop due to 
radiation, then halt just above freezing. Current dewpoints, I 
think tell the story with most in the 40s and some dropping into 
the middle 30s. This will probably be a good approximation to the 
lows tonight. 


Lutz 


&& 


Long term.../issued at 313 PM/...Saturday and beyond 


Saturday...am still a little concerned for fire weather with the 
minimum relative humidity expected to get into the 30 to 35% range, but the winds 
will will remain at 10 miles per hour or less and the southerly wind will 
begin the warming/moistening process. So little to worry about as 
far as headlines. Otherwise, the 500 mb heights build into the 
region with the surface southerly flow which will allow our 
temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 70s by the afternoon. 


Lutz 


Later periods...high pressure to the east...and a big upper ridge 
overhead...will provide warm and quiet weather through the quasi-Holiday 
weekend. Forecast concerns are minimal until next week. 


Models...by Monday...the 12z NAM keeps the upstream upper low 
somewhat progressive as it moves to near Winnipeg...while the GFS is 
stuck near the Montana/ND border. These solutions are all significantly 
slower than earlier runs. The Gem does its own thing...ejecting part 
of the upper low into Manitoba but leaving a lot of energy behind in 
the Great Basin. This is highly uncertain...but the main impact will 
not be until next week. Will lean toward the more progressive 
solutions for the sake of continuity...but am not enthused about it. 


Sat night/Sunday...high pressure will be anchored along the East 
Coast...while low pressure fights its way into the eastern Dakotas. 
S/south-southwest low level flow flow will produce continued (though weak) warm 
advection. Skies will not be completely clear...some of the bubbly 
cirrus working its way into Missouri now will be drawn overhear. 
Will also add some fog Sat night/Sunday morning...as dew points are 
heading upward. Fog may be most prevalent in eastern Upper Michigan... 
where the marine influence is greater. Min temperatures will be on the mild 
side for middle October...middle 40s to lower 50s. Maximum temperatures will range 
from the upper 60s north to upper 70s southeast. 


Sunday night/Monday...building high pressure near Hudson Bay will 
try to back door the front north of Superior southward. This boundary 
might...might ooze down into eastern Upper Michigan by Monday morning. The 
presence of that boundary...with steady southerly flow to the 
south...supports a chance of showers north of the bridge during the 
day on Monday. Otherwise another dry is expected...though with a bit 
more humidity. Min temperatures mainly 50s. Maximum temperatures...eastern Upper Michigan 
will cool off a bit to the middle 60s...while northern lower Michigan ranges 
through the 70s. 


Rest of the forecast...vigorous upper low lifting across Hudson Bay 
will eventually suppress the eastern ridge...and allow a cold front 
to work through the region Monday night or Tuesday. Showers and a few 
storms are likely. Reasonable agreement among the models that 
another piece of energy will eject from the SW Tuesday night into 
Wednesday...spinning up a wave along the front. Said wave is prognosticated 
to move through the southern lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday...and will keep 
the chance for precipitation going...especially in the southern portion of 
the forecast area. After that...weak surface ridging tries to build 
in from the west...and will go dry Thursday. Colder air arriving Friday 
could result in some lake effect showers Friday. Monday will be the 
last warm day for a while...the rest of the work week should see 
readings closer to climatology...going below on Friday. 


Jz 




&& 


Marine.../issued at 313 PM/ 


High pressure will continue light winds overnight and into 
Saturday. So waves will remain less than 2 feet in the nearshore 
zones. With the high moving east of Michigan late Saturday, the 
southerly flow will increase and the winds will begin to produce 
higher waves Saturday night and Sunday. 


Lutz 


&& 


Aviation.../issued at 157 PM/...valid for 18z tafs 


High pressure will be in control of the taf sites this next 24 
hours. The main concern will be middle level clouds and the 
possibility of lake breezes moving into the taf sites. If there 
are lake breezes they will most likely be late in the afternoon as 
it will take longer to warm the land for the wind to swing around. 
Pln probably won't see any lake influence. Winds will turn southeast by 
Saturday as the high moves east so the lake breeze will be a 
forgone conclusion in apn. Tvc is a tossup, but most likely won't 
see one as the southerly wind on Saturday looks to be strong 
enough keep the lake breeze from forming. 


Lutz 


&& 


Apx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Michigan...none. 
Lm...none. 
LH...none. 
Ls...none. 


&& 


$$