Weather

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan 
715 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Latest update...aviation... 


Synopsis...(245 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008) 
a high pressure system... which at noon was located over the Central 
Plains... will move slowly eastward to lower Michigan by Saturday 
afternoon. The surface high will then move toward the East Coast on 
Sunday. That will bringing a return flow of warm and humid air to 
the region. That pattern of a southerly flow of warm and humid air 
from the Gulf of Mexico will prevail into Wednesday. 


&& 


Short term...(250 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008) 
the high...which was centered over Nebraska and Kansas at noon will 
move slowly east to lower Michigan on Saturday. Surface dew points 
have been slow to fall this afternoon and with light winds tonight I 
would expect areas of fog to develop. Due to the weak cold advection 
I do not expect widespread fog but areas that did get significant 
rain early this morning could see some locally dense fog. Saturday 
and Sunday will see mostly clear skies...light winds and slowly 
warming afternoon temperatures. With dew points mostly in the 50s 
and clear skies and night I would expect a rather large diurnal 
temperature range each day. 


&& 


Long term...(332 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008) 
(monday through friday) 
more dry weather appears likely into the long term. There will be 
two chances of rain through the work week...but as of now both 
periods look slim. 


Early in the week we will be under upper ridging with return flow at 
the surface. This will help temperatures climb into the upper 80s to lower 
90s. The first chance of precipitation in the long term comes on Wednesday 
as a weakening cold front moves in. Much of the energy to this 
system will stay well to our north...over southern Canada...so will 
only have slight chance probability of precipitation across the northern County Warning Area. 


Into the latter portion of the week the models are not in good 
agreement. The Euro brings the remnants of Gustav into the center 
of the nation...while the GFS shows high pressure there. Have probability of precipitation 
in for Friday to agree with surrounding offices. 


&& 


Marine...(250 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008) 
thanks to high pressure moving over the Great Lakes Saturday and 
slowly moving east of the Great Lakes on Sunday... expect light 
winds...minimal waves and for the most part clear skies. 


&& 


Aviation...(715 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008) 
VFR conditions through Saturday afternoon. Only exception may be 
late tonight where some fog is possible in areas that have seen dew 
points remain higher from the lake breeze. Model soundings suggest 
drier air will mix in overnight. Left in fog at jxn due to local 
propensity for shallow fog formation there. 


&& 


Hydrology...(250 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008) 
dry weather will prevail for some time to come. While there was rain 
early this morning it was not widespread. The combination of dry 
weather... abundant sunshine and increased southerly winds by early 
next week will increase the risk of for drought related issues over 
time. 


&& 


GRR watches/warnings/advisories... 
Michigan...none. 
Lm...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis: wdm 
short term: wdm 
long term: jk 
marine: wdm 
aviation: ostuno 
hydrology: wdm