Weather

844 
fxus61 kcar 290840 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
440 am EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will track east of Nova Scotia today...while high 
pressure remains ridged across the region. A cold front will 
approach late tonight...then cross the region Saturday. A 
secondary cold front and upper level disturbance could then 
cross the region Sunday. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
low pressure will retrograde toward Nova Scotia early today then 
begin to track northeast...while high pressure remains ridged 
across the forecast area. Showers wrapping around the Maritimes 
low could clip eastern portions of the forecast area 
today...particularly Washington County. Showers should then begin 
to move northeast later today. Otherwise...skies will be partly 
sunny/mostly cloudy across western portions of the forecast area 
today...with mostly cloudy skies across eastern areas. Ridging 
will begin to move east tonight...with a cold front approaching 
northwest portions of the forecast area late tonight. Skies will 
be partly/mostly cloudy across the region tonight. Isolated 
showers are possible late tonight across northwest areas in 
advance of the cold front. High temperatures today will range from 
around 70 north...to the lower 70s interior downeast with upper 
60s to around 70 along the downeast coast. Low temperatures 
tonight will range from the lower to middle 50s across the region. 
&& 


Short term /Saturday through Sunday/... 
weak cold front is expected to move across the forecast area 
Saturday. Will mention isolated thunder during 
afternoon...however does not appear to be much support for more 
than that. Behind front high pressure is expected to build in from 
the west with drying conditions. Will use model blend of 
sref...nam12 and gfs40 for probability of precipitation. For quantitative precipitation forecast equal blend of NAM and 
GFS. Temperature...dew point and winds based on gmos. 
&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
strong high pressure continues to build in from the west at the 
beginning of this period. Both gfs40 and European model (ecmwf) suggest that this 
system will remain in place to the west of New England through the 
middle of the week. Weak front could move through Thursday into 
Friday. Have initialized grids with gmos. Will lower gmos probability of precipitation 
Wednesday. Have also made some minor adjustments to sky 
cover...otherwise no other changes. 
&& 


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
conditions will range from VFR to MVFR levels across the region 
today...mostly for ceilings. Visibilities could also be locally 
reduced briefly in any isolated to scattered showers today. A 
continuation of generally VFR to MVFR conditions is expected 
tonight...though locally lower conditions are possible with any 
patchy fog late. Isolated showers are also possible later tonight 
across northwest areas in advance of the approaching cold front. 
Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions are possible Saturday while a cold 
front moves through the state. Expect VFR conditions Sunday through 
Tuesday. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft 
Advisory levels today through tonight. Visibilities could be 
reduced at times in any showers today. 


Short term: have initialized wind grids with an equal blend of 
the nam12 and gfs40. Out to 00z Monday expect stable conditions in 
marine layer with southwest flow in place so will lower wind 
speeds 2 to 3 knots for this period. For waves: will initialize 
with the wna. Spectral analysis for Saturday through Sunday suggest 
wave model significant heights primarily based on southwest wind 
wave. This does not appear reasonable given stable conditions...so 
will lower wave height around 1 foot. Beyond sunday: will lower 
gmos winds Sunday night into Monday 2 to 3 knots. Will also keep 
waves at maximum of 2 feet. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...Norcross 
short term...mignone 
long term...mignone 
aviation...Norcross 
marine...Norcross/mignone