Weather

626 
fxus61 kgyx 071342 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
942 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
remains of Hanna have moved through the Gulf of Maine and are 
approaching the Canadian Maritimes this morning. High pressure 
will build over the middle Atlantic region this afternoon through 
Monday night. A strong cold front will approach from the west on 
Tuesday. High pressure will then build over the region from the 
Great Lakes for the end of the work week. 


&& 


Near term /until 4 PM this afternoon/... 
precipitation has ended across the entire region and cloud cover 
is beginning to break up. Expect high pressure to build across the 
region today...decreasing cloud cover. Have updated products to 
remove all mention of precipitation today. Winds should shift to 
the northwest and be a bit breezy today...especially along the 
coast. 


&& 


Short term /4 PM this afternoon through 6 am Monday/... 
mostly clear over southern/coastal sections tonight...though 
still some lingering clouds over northern/mountain sections. Used 
blend of mav/met/current forecast for temperatures/winds and blend 
of mav/current forecast for probability of precipitation. 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Saturday/... 
will keep this brief due to ongoing flooding and rainfall now 
approaching the 6-7 inch range across portions of SW Maine and southeast 
New Hampshire. Localized significant flooding will result. 


Otherwise...high pressure to keep US dry until strong cold front 
approaches Tuesday. Strong dynamics and accompanying very strong 
wind field will support possible localized severe thunderstorms by 
late in the day Tuesday. Front moves off the coast later in the 
evening allowing high pressure to dry US out from the Great Lakes 
region. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/... 
short range...some lingering MVFR ceilings across the region 
should rapidly improve to VFR before noon. VFR tonight. 


Long range...mainly VFR except for localized IFR/LIFR in any 
strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and early evening. 


&& 


Marine... 
short range...winds beginning to turn to the northwest in the wake 
of Hanna. Buoy data indicates that winds over the waters have 
diminished to below Gale Warning criteria. Have canceled the Gale 
Warning and replaced it with a Small Craft Advisory. Seas will be 
slow to respond today and will likely take until late this evening 
to drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Long range...gradient increases rapidly ahead of strong cold front 
on Tuesday. This will allow winds and seas to respond and build 
during the day. Wna ran pretty high with event...and this looks 
reasonable given synoptic situation. Otherwise...winds/seas 
relatively light through much of the period. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
impressive rainfall totals from the event...augmented by activity 
along a convergence zone Saturday evening into the early part of 
the overnight. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were common 
across southern New Hampshire and western Maine...with the axis of 
heaviest rain across Rockingham...York and Cumberland counties 
into the middle coast. 


The rain has ended across the entire region this morning as the 
remnants of Hanna has exited. The remaining hydrology problems 
will be related to runoff. Not much in the way of problems 
remaining this morning across southern New Hampshire and York 
County Maine...as many of the smaller rivers and streams having 
crested and receding. The flood warnings have been allowed to 
expire here. Will have to watch the soucook river near Concord has 
reached action stage...but appears to be cresting. 


Not too many remaining problems across central Maine this morning... 
and the remaining County based Flood Warning will probably be 
allowed to expire at 1100 am (as scheduled). The Presumpscot River 
is still rising...and a river Flood Warning will continue there. 
Would expect the river to crest late this morning or early this 
afternoon...and fall below flood stage this evening. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for anz150>154. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for anz150>154. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...pohl 
near term...pohl 
aviation...pohl 
marine...pohl 
hydrology...Hayes