Weather

050 
fxus61 kcar 070729 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
329 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna will track across the Gulf of 
Maine this morning and then move into the Gulf of St Lawrence by 
this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build into the region 
this afternoon and crest the state on Monday. A cold front will 
approach from the west Tuesday and cross the state Tuesday 
evening. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
remnants of Hanna right on schedule currently moving through 
southern New England. The low will track into the Gulf of Maine 
moving just south of mdi by middle morning and then move through the 
Gulf of fundy into the Gulf of St Lawrence by this afternoon. Back 
edge of rain already moving through New Hampshire and central Massachusetts and expect 
most of the rain to be east of our area by midday with improving 
conditions. Rainfall amounts over downeast between 3 and 5 inches 
with lesser amounts as you move north still looks reasonable. 
Breezy easterly winds along the coast in advance of the low may 
gusts up to 40 miles per hour just below advisory criteria so for now will 
not issue Wind Advisory but this will have to be closely monitor 
this morning. 


High pressure will build across the region tonight with clearing 
skies and lower humidity. 
&& 


Short term /Monday through Tuesday/... 
remnants of Hanna well east-northeast of the forecast area to start the short term west/ a weak 
short wave ridge prognosticated to build over the forecast area on Monday and remain into 
Erly Tuesday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes Erly Tuesday expeceted to intensify 
and lift newrd to a posn just northwest of the mouth of the St Lawrence 
by late Tuesday. This system forecast to bring a rather strong cold front 
across the region late Tuesday. 
&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
Canadian hgh pressure west/ much cooler and drier air will ovrsprd the 
area Tuesday night behind the cold front and remain through Thursday. A weaker 
frontal system expeceted to approach the region later in the week... 
populated the long term grids west/ gmos and adjusted sky/probability of precipitation to 
better fit expeceted conditions... 
&& 


Aviation /07z Sunday through Thursday/... 
a combination of IFR and MVFR conditions due to rain will improve 
this afternoon to VFR as low pressure moves east of the region and 
high pressure builds in from the west. VFR conditions will 
continue tonight. 


VFR conditions expeceted Monday into Tuesday west/ MVFR to IFR conds west/ the cold 
front Monday afternoon into Monday evening. VFR conditions expeceted to return Tuesday 
night as cooler and drier air ovrsprds the region on brisk northwest winds 
west/ cool and dry Canadian hgh pressure yielding VFR conds through Thursday. 
&& 


Marine... 
near term: gale force winds still looks good in advance of the low 
pressure as it moves through the Gulf of Maine this morning. As 
low moves east of the waters this afternoon, winds will shift to 
the northwest and decrease. Used the tcm wind tool this morning 
and the GFS for this afternoon into tonight for winds. Used the 
wnawave for seas. 


Short term: seas will be on the decreases at the start of the short 
term period but should fall below Small Craft Advisory Monday am. Small Craft Advisory conds expeceted to 
return by Tuesday afternoon west/ brisk srly winds ahead of the strong 
approaching cold front... 
&& 


Hydrology... 
rainfall amounts between 3 and 5 inches still looks reasonable 
across downeast this morning with most locations already receiving 
1 to 2 inches. Flash flood guidance is high...but torrential 
downpours in a short period of time will still cause concern for 
possible flash flooding. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for mez011-015>017- 
029>032. 
Marine...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for anz050>052. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...Foster 
short term...khw 
long term...khw 
aviation...Foster 
marine...Foster/khw 
hydrology...