Weather

537 
fxus61 kcar 060747 
afdcar 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME 
247 am EST Tuesday Jan 6 2009 


Synopsis... 
cold high pressure will build in from the west today and crest 
over the region tonight. Low pressure will track into the eastern 
Great Lakes on Wednesday as a secondary area of low pressure forms 
in the Gulf of Maine. The new low will track through the Bay of 
Fundy Wednesday night and across the Maritimes Thursday and 
Friday. 
&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
high pressure south of the Great Lakes will move east keeping 
northwest flow and cold air advection across the region today. 
BUFKIT indicates low level unstable lapse rates will allow for the 
formation of stratus cumulus over mainly northern and central 
sections providing a mix of sun and clouds there today. Can't 
rule out a flurry or two, but with moisture limited to the lower 
levels will only include scattered flurries over northern and 
central sections this afternoon. Downglide will create mostly 
sunny skies over downeast. With cold air advection during the day, 
prefer the colder met guidance for temperatures. High pressure 
will crest the region tonight. With clear skies and light winds, 
strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop well 
below zero across northern and central sections tonight. Temperature 
guidance usually too warm with this scenario so will follow 
previous forecast and go around 10 degrees below the guidance 
tonight. High to middle clouds will move across downeast sections 
after midnight keeping temperatures from dropping below zero 
there. 
&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/... 
a large trough of low pressure approaching from the west will 
support one area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes 
as a secondary low takes shape in the Gulf of Maine. Moisture 
ahead of the system will spread snow across downeast Maine during 
the middle morning hours on Wednesday with the snow reaching northern 
Maine around middle to late afternoon. Most models agree on a moderate 
snowfall event with 6-8 inches in most locations. The GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) is coming close to 10 inches over some of the central Maine 
Highlands. Most of the snowfall will occur from late Wednesday 
through Wednesday night. However...occasional light snow will 
likely continue through the day on Thursday...especially over 
the north...as the upper low moves over. We will be issuing 
watches for central and northern zones though right now it 
looks marginal for meeting warning criteria in most areas. 
&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 
snow showers and flurries may linger into Friday night as the 
upper low slowly moves away. High pressure will build in for 
Saturday. Another trough of low pressure will dig into the 
upper Midwest Saturday as secondary low pressure forms off the 
southern New England coast. Most models including the European model (ecmwf) and 
now the GFS are shearing the secondary low and its moisture out 
to sea before it can appreciably develop. This would leave only 
a chance for light snow or snow showers as the upper low moves 
across. There's still a chance the upper low could be strong 
enough to pull the developing surface low back in bringing snow 
Saturday night or Sunday so mentioning chance snow over the weekend. 
Cold and dry conditions should follow for early next week. 
&& 


Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
VFR conditions today and tonight. VFR conditions early Wednesday 
morning will lower to IFR then LIFR from south to north during the 
day Wednesday. LIFR conditions Wednesday night and IFR to MVFR 
conditions on Thursday can be expected. MVFR conditions on Friday 
should give way to VFR conditions on Saturday. 
&& 


Marine... 
strong Small Craft Advisory continues over the waters this morning and expect 
conditions to continue for most of today. Winds and seas to 
decrease tonight as high pressure builds over the region. 
A strong Small Craft Advisory or gale may be needed Wednesday afternoon into 
Wednesday evening ahead of low pressure lifting into the Gulf of 
Maine. A gale may then be needed again Thursday into Friday in 
west winds behind departing low pressure. 
&& 


Car watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday 
afternoon for mez001-002. 
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday 
morning for mez003>006-010. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this afternoon 
for anz050>052. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...Foster 
short term...Bloomer 
long term...Bloomer 
aviation...Foster 
marine...Foster/Bloomer