Weather

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fxus61 kbox 101934 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
334 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will settle over the region bringing dry and pleasant 
weather with above normal temperatures into early next week. While 
the chance for some shower activity increases middle to late week...no 
major precipitation producing systems are expected during the entire 
forecast period. 


&& 


Near term /until midnight tonight/... 
no substantial changes to the forecast and our grid monitor shows our forecast 
temperatures and dews almost completely across the board still within 2f. We 
sometimes have problems in the diurnal fall and rise asstd with sunset 
and sunrise but for the most part...we are on the Glide slope at 
2pm..so far. 


Maximum afternoon temperature should be 68-72f at all locations at or below 500 feet mean sea level and 
non marine influenced regions. 


As for your information...near term grids go through constant updates for trends in the 
t0 through t+6 hour time frame /now through next several hours/ but these 
are generally only small adjustments to the temperature/dewpoint/wind trends. 


&& 


Short term /midnight tonight through Saturday night/... 
high pressure will continue to build into the region. Mostly clear skies 
and seasonable temperatures will be the rule for the short term. 


Patchy fog and frost will be most common in the interior early Sunday. 


Any CT River Valley fog/stratus early Saturday morning should be notably 
less in coverage than that of this morning...due to larger tt/dew point spread 
at 3pm today compared to ydy...plus we have had a day of surface humidity 
drying after yesterday mornings showers. 


Sustained wind and transport winds for fwx is a 50 50 blend of GFS/NAM 
12z/10 guidance. 


Temperatures are either 12z GFS mavmos guidance or a 50 50 blend of this 
new 12z GFS mav guidance with the previous 4am kbox forecast temperatures. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
ridging will dominate during much of the forecast period...resulting 
in mainly fair weather and above normal temperatures. Backdoor cold 
front still looks to pass through Sunday night into early morning. 
This will likely result in cooler temperatures along the shore for 
Monday. Otherwise...a period of clouds and above normal temperatures are 
still expected for those areas not directly affected by onshore flow. 
Chances for any return flow drizzle/light showers looks to be 
diminishing for Monday night into Tuesday but we will have to remain on 
the lookout for a period of broken ceilings that could linger into 
Tuesday. 


Models diverge Tuesday night in timing of next cold front...with the 
European model (ecmwf) being faster than the GFS with breaking down the ridge. The 
ridge will likely break down to some degree middle to late week...which 
would allow short wave through energy to pass through from time to 
time. This could mean a higher chance of light shower activity middle to 
late week...but any wetting rains will likely be meager if they occur 
at all in this pattern. 


Temperatures during the period will average 5 to 10 degrees above normal to 
start /except at the immediate coast Monday/...then probably gradually 
trend back toward normal as next week progresses. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... 
VFR conditions at all taf sites through Sat night. Low probability MVFR/IFR 
conds for a couple of hours near sunrise Sunday at baf. Please see tafs 
for the details on wind directions et cetera. 


Outlook...Sunday through Tuesday... 


Mainly VFR conditions expected. 


&& 


Marine... 
no headlines through Sat night. Decent marine weather. 


Outlook...Sunday through Tuesday... 


High pressure centered over the northeast for much of the period. A 
backdoor cold front moves across the waters Sunday night. This front 
may be strong enough to deliver a few Small Craft Advisory wind gusts...but probability on 
that looks quite low at this time. 


&& 


Climate... 
you will see departure from climatology showing up in some of our discussions 
as we are using a tool that takes our official kbox forecast (whenever 
we modify mos) and compare that against the daily climate. 


This afternoon...near 7 or 8 above 
tonight..........0 to 7 above /orh and bos near 7 above/ 
Saturday.........2 to 7 above ..greatest positive departure CT River Valley. 
Saturday night...near normal Countryside but 5 to 10 above bos orh mht 
and about 3 above pvd. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ekster 
near term...drag 
short term...drag 
long term...ekster 
aviation...drag/ekster 
marine...drag/ekster 
climate...drag