Weather

243 
fxus61 kaly 101919 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
319 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will crest over southeastern Canada and the 
northeast tonight. The high will continue the fair and dry weather 
with above normal temperatures through the Columbus day Holiday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
a gorgeous Holiday weekend will occur across eastern New York and western New 
England. Surface high pressure over Michigan and Lake Huron will ridge 
eastward over New York overnight. H500 heights upstream over Ontario and 
the Great Lakes region will continue to rise. Weak warm advection 
will be occurring in the h700-850 layer. Nonetheless...ideal 
radiational cooling conditions will occur with clear skies and calm 
air. Temperatures should plummet overnight with the dry air mass. Patchy 
fog will likely occur in the major river valleys. We included the 
patchy mist/fog in the grids. We went a few degrees colder than the 
mavmos values overnight with generally m30s to l40s in the 
valleys...and u20s to u30s over the hills and mountains 


&& 


Short term /Saturday through Monday/... 
Saturday...high pressure will remain anchored over eastern Canada and 
the northeast providing plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. H850 
temperatures rise to 10c over the capital district...though light winds 
in the boundary layer with the anticyclone overhead may only allow 
mixing from h900/h925. Expect wall to wall sunshine...due to the 
subsidence and highs to be around 10 degrees above normal 


Saturday night...another excellent radiational cooling night 
despite h850 temperatures in the 10-12c range. We are wondering how dry 
ground will impact the cooling effect with the clear skies and 
calm air. We went a couple degrees below the coolest MOS 
guidance..which was the mavmos. We Don/T think areas of frost will 
occur in the capital district with u30s forecast. 


Sunday through Monday...a full blown high amplitude ridge at h500 
is over the East Coast with residual moisture over the deep 
southeast. This blocking high will prevent a strong cold front 
over the plains from making much progress eastward. A backdoor 
cold front will be dipping southwest from the Canadian Maritimes 
Sunday night into Monday. Their isn/T much moisture with it...and 
we kept any probability of precipitation out for Columbus day. We went with temperatures about 
10-15 degrees above normal for both days with a good deal of 
sunshine. The next best chance of widespread showers still looks 
like Tuesday into Wednesday. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
coming soon... 




&& 


Aviation /19z Friday through Wednesday/... 
full sunshine this afternoon will promote VFR conditions throughout 
all of eastern New York. Westerly winds may be somewhat gusty at kalb this 
afternoon as winds funnel down the Mohawk Valley...but gusts will be less 
than 20 kts. Winds will decouple this evening...allowing for good 
radiational cooling tonight. IFR fog will be likely at kgfl after 
06z due to local terrain effects. Kpou should be fog brief most of 
the night...although a brief period of fog requiring a tempo cannot 
be ruled out there prior to sunrise. The same is true at kalb...as 
the light northerly wind may allow for some fog that develops over 
the Mohawk River to move towards the field just prior to and around 
sunrise there. After about 12z...any fog will dissipate...allowing 
for VFR conditions with full sunshine. Winds will be lighter on 
Saturday...as an area of high pressure becomes situated directly 
over upstate New York. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure will continue to provide fair and dry weather the 
next several days. A northwest wind 5 to 15 miles per hour will persist late 
this afternoon. The lowest afternoon relative humidity values will range from around 30 
percent in the middle Hudson Valley...to around 50 percent across the 
southern Adirondacks. A full recovery tonight with plenty of dew 
and or some frost forming. More sunshine on Saturday with relative humidity 
values very similar to Friday and north wind 5 to 10 miles per hour. The next 
chance of rain will not be until Tuesday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no hydrological problems are foreseen the next 5 days. Rivers 
and streams are at normal to below normal levels for October. The 
next chance of showers is not until Tuesday and right now amounts 
look light under a quarter of an inch. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wasula 
near term...wasula 
short term...wasula 
long term... 
aviation...frugis 
fire weather...15/hwjiv 
hydrology...wasula