Weather

476 
fxus61 kbox 292326 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
726 PM EDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will cross southern New England Saturday afternoon and 
evening. This should be followed by high pressure from Canada... 
providing dry and warm weather through most of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/... 
showers that have been evident in western New York state could 
produce a few sprinkles across western Massachusetts the rest of the 
afternoon and early this evening. However...the forecast for 
tonight is expected to be mostly dry. The front...stretched across 
the eastern Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley...will move 
eastward overnight. As it nears southern New England...a few 
showers could form along and just ahead of the front in western mass 
and southwestern New Hampshire late tonight. 


Otherwise...mostly cloudy skies and overnight temperatures right 
around or slightly warmer than what they have been the last few 
nights are expected. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/... 
Saturday...the cold front will move through southern New England. 
Both the NAM and the GFS show it moving through in the afternoon 
hours which is in agreement with the last couple of days of model 
runs. Because this will be at the peak of daytime heating...showers 
and a few isolated thunderstorms will be likely. However...there 
are some limiting factors. Neither the NAM or the GFS show any 
instability in the form of negative lifted indices or cape. There 
is enough shear /about 20kts 0-6km/ for thunderstorms but it/S on 
the low end for anything severe to develop. Given this...and the 
lack of good dynamics...severe weather is not likely. It cannot be 
completely ruled out...there may be a storm or two...but it is very 
unlikely. 


Am expecting mostly cloudy skies as the front approaches and moves 
across...this will hold temperatures down a bit but just to around 
or slightly below normal. Highs will range from the middle 70s to 
around 80. 


Saturday night...the cold front will complete it/S trek across 
southern New England and by the early morning hours will have moved 
well out to sea. A few lingering showers are possible...especially 
across the East Coast of Massachusetts. However...these likely will 
have moved out by early Sunday morning. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
upper trough digs into the western USA early in the week...relaxes a 
little midweek...then digs again late week. Strong upper ridge mimics 
this action by building early...weakening midweek...and rebuilding 
late week although not as strong as the early week ridge. Bottom line 
is still the same...an overall a quiet period with warming 
temperatures. 


850 mb temperatures start around 11-12c early week...climb to 18-19c 
Tuesday...then 15-17c the rest of the week. This would support 
80s...with a period near 90 or in the lower 90s Tuesday. 


A weak cold front approaches late Thursday night and Friday morning. 
With the upper ridge in place it is not clear how far south this 
front will get...if the 12z European model (ecmwf) is right then the front could stall 
in northern New England. For now the forecast brings a few clouds through 
the south during the day Friday but is otherwise dry. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
clouds are slowly filling in with mainly 5500 feet bases reported in 
western New England...and a scattered 5500 layer in the east. We 
expect all areas to go over to a broken layer during the first half 
of the night. Sea breeze east wind at Boston is hanging tough...but 
should swing around to south and then southwest by midnight. 


Saturday...mainly VFR with MVFR ceilings lingering along the coast. As 
the front moves through...scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
move with it from west to east after about 15z. When these storms 
move through...MVFR or possibly IFR conditions will occur. 


Saturday night...MVFR conditions will linger along the coast as 
showers and thunderstorms move out of that area late...as showers 
and thunderstorms clear the coast...VFR conditions will slowly 
return. 


Outlook...Sunday through Wednesday... 


Generally VFR through the period. Patchy MVFR/IFR is possible in 
early morning fog especially in the Connecticut valley. 


&& 


Marine... 
this afternoon and tonight...NE swells around 3 feet will continue... 
seas could reach 4 feet across the far eastern waters late tonight. 
Winds will remain light from the S-se. 


Saturday...S-SW winds will continue with sustained winds less than 
15 kts and a few gusts between 15 and 20 kts. Seas will remain 
between 2 to 4 feet. 


Saturday night...S-SW winds will shift to the northwest as the front pushes 
out onto the waters late Saturday evening. Winds may gust to 20 kts 
as this occurs but otherwise will remain below 15 kts. Seas remain 
at 4 feet or less. 


Outlook...Sunday through Wednesday... 


Light winds and seas through most of this period. Low pressure 
lingering south of Nova Scotia may send 4 to 5 foot swells to the 
waters east of Cape Cod and Nantucket Monday...but the current 
forecast keeps the heaviest swells outside our forecast area. We will 
need to monitor the potential for rip currents Sunday and Monday along 
the Outer Cape and Nantucket from any southeast swell. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Belk 
near term...rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...wtb 
aviation...wtb/rlg/drag 
marine...wtb/rlg