Weather

829 
fxus61 kbox 071723 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
123 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
weak high pressure builds over New England late today through early 
Tuesday bringing warm dry weather. An approaching cold front Tuesday 
will bring a period of scattered showers/thunderstorms followed by 
dry seasonable weather Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
updated the zones and grids to reflect the quicker clearing trend 
by 10 am. Brought conditions current as well...with clear to partly 
cloudy skies. Some broken clouds hanging in around eastern Massachusetts/S New Hampshire 
with leftover moisture. Visible satellite trends show these breaking 
up. Expect them to melt away with setting sun. 


Expect highs to head toward previously forecasted values. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/... 
high pressure remains in control through the night and Monday. This 
will mean dry more comfortable weather with dew points in the upper 
40s and 50s. Radiational cooling tonight will allow min temperatures in the 
upper 40s and 50s. Daytime heating and mixing Monday with 850 mb 
temperatures 10-12c should support maximum temperatures around 80. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/... 
Monday night...high pressure will gradually move offshore. 
Temperatures will fall to around 50 in the interior to around 60 
along the coast. 


Tuesday...an upper level trough and accompanying low pressure system 
will pull a cold front through southern New England Tuesday afternoon. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the front 
as it moves through. At this point...the timing of the front 
coincides with a strong low level jet...which will result in high 
amounts of shear. If this scenario verifies...severe thunderstorms 
will be possible with the frontal passage with damaging winds the 
greatest threat. Will stick with chance probability of precipitation in the grids and 
mention thunder but at this point will leave mention of severe out 
of the grids and limit that mention to the severe weather potential statement. High temperatures 
will be slightly above normal prior to the front moving through. 


Wednesday and Thursday...high pressure builds back into the area 
behind the front. Dry...more autumn-like weather is expected...with 
high temperatures slightly below normal. 


Friday and Saturday...another series of fronts could move through 
southern New England. This far out there is little agreement amongst 
the models. Some say a warm front Friday and cold front Saturday. 
Others say a cold front Friday and still others say a warm front 
that will miss southern New England on Friday and a cold front on 
Saturday. Will only make small adjustments to the grids for these 
days since the picture is so unclear. 


&& 


Aviation /17z Sunday through Thursday/... 
most areas have cleared out...but some lower clouds linger over 
eastern areas as well as S New Hampshire...generally between 3500 and 4500 feet. 
Expect these clouds to melt away with setting sun. West-northwest wind gusts 
have diminished. 


Short wave moving out of western New York state will bring middle layer of 
clouds over northern and western areas. Will mention 7-8kft cloud 
deck at kbdl/kbaf/korh and kmht. At this point...lower layers are dry 
so not expecting precipitation to reach ground...but will monitor. 


Monday...VFR. 


Outlook...Monday night through Thursday... 


Monday night...VFR. 


Tuesday...mainly VFR...then MVFR in showers and thunderstorms as a 
front moves through southern New England. 


Wednesday through Friday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds have diminished below gale criteria...so lowered the gale to a 
small craft for all waters except Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. 
Winds may continue to gust to 25 knots through the afternoon. 


Seas have subsided to around 3 feet on the nearshore waters...but still 
up to 11 feet at buoy 018 and 8 feet at buoy 017. Will take longer for 
those seas to subside...especially on the eastern open waters. Feel 
that the seas will take until Monday morning or so to drop below 5 feet. 


The high seas with long period swell will mean a high risk of rip 
currents along the South Coast beaches. A high surf advisory 
continues through this afternoon for the south facing beaches. 


Outlook...Monday night through Thursday... 


Monday night...winds and seas below small craft criteria. 


Tuesday...small craft criteria likely as upper level trough and cold 
front move through the waters. 


Wednesday through Friday...winds and waves will fall below small 
craft criteria by Wednesday afternoon and remain that way through 
Friday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
issued river Flood Warning for the Blackstone River at Northbridge. 
River level should fall below flood stage this afternoon. All other 
warnings have been discontinued as river levels have fallen below 
flood stage. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for maz020-023- 
024. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for riz006>008. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
anz231>234. 
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Monday for anz235-237-250- 
254-255. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/rlg 
near term...evt 
short term...wtb 
long term...rlg 
aviation...evt/rlg 
marine...wtb/evt/rlg 
hydrology...evt/nmb