Weather

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fxus64 kshv 291615 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
1115 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion... 
very warm day expected across the region today with high 
temperatures already around 90 degrees as of 16z across many 
locations. Dewpoints very balmy across the region as well with 
lower to 70 degree dewpoints areawide. 24hr temperature changes 
are close to this time yesterday with no change to a degree or 
two higher as of 16z. Bumped up temperatures a little in the east 
and north to account for the temperature changes and also adjusted 
dewpoint grids which will not allow for as much mixing as previous 
dewpoint grids showed. As a result...this will result in heat index 
values near 100 degree areawide with values near 104 across the 
east. 


Slight chance probability of precipitation for the afternoon looks good and made no 
changes to the pop grids. Expecting a very unstable airmass once 
again across the region this afternoon with cape values at or above 4000 j/kg 
and given the high precipitable water values that came in on our 
12z sounding...diurnally driven isolated convection is once again 
expected across the region. Watching a complex across northern 
Arkansas trying to make progression our way in weak northern flow 
aloft. Feel like any organized convection should wait until tonight 
across our northern zones so will hit this up in the afternoon 
package depending on what coverage and intensity is like come 
press time this afternoon. 


Update out shortly...13. 


&& 


Aviation... 
not much to hang your hat on today with surface winds l/v and temperatures 
quickly rising west/ few cumulus at this time. However...moist and unstable air 
remains in place and pop up showers may occur just about anywhere. 
Into the afternoon initial organization of activity should have a 
west...SW drift over much of the County Warning Area based on lower level dqua4/wnfl1 
profiler data. However...a bit of northwest flow over East Texas will force 
isolate cumulonimbus activity more to the south. Terminal coverage will likely be 
sparse...but some amendments maybe required during peak heating. /24/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 95 73 94 73 95 / 20 20 20 20 10 
mlu 96 70 94 71 94 / 20 20 20 20 20 
deq 95 70 94 72 94 / 20 30 20 20 10 
txk 95 72 94 72 94 / 20 30 20 20 10 
eld 96 70 95 72 94 / 20 30 20 20 10 
tyr 96 73 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 20 10 
ggg 95 73 94 73 94 / 20 20 20 20 10 
lfk 95 72 95 72 95 / 20 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


13/24