Weather

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fxus64 klch 060500 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
1100 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Update...quasistationary front is extending from the northwest Gulf 
through south central Louisiana this evening. Most of the rain 
activity is north of the forecast area...but approach of short 
wave into the Southern Plains should allow for increasing rain 
chances especially across southeast Texas. No significant updates 
expected for the grids...but will tweak probability of precipitation and temperatures 
based on current conditions. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 417 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009/ 


Discussion... 
as I thought yesterday...this front has turned out to be a Royal 
pain. At 22z...front had retreated to the northwest of a Baton 
Rouge to Lafayette line and southwest into the Gulf waters. On the 
cool side of the boundary...deck of low clouds has kept 
temperatures nearly steady...with reduced visibilities to less 
than one mile at times near the coast and over the nearshore 
waters. Locations that have stayed or got in the warm sector have 
warmed into the 70 to 75 range. 


Latest forecasts suggest a little more northwestward movement is 
possible...which will continue to result in a challenging 
temperature forecast...with a 20 degree spread across the forecast 
area from northwest to southeast. Precip-wise...aside from the 
cluster of showers that lifted north from the Gulf earlier 
today...the activity has largely been of the isolated variety. 
That should begin to change later tonight...especially after 
midnight...as lift increases ahead of the approaching upper trough. 
High rain chances will continue into Tuesday as the upper trough 
moves through and the front is kicked east of the area. Drier air 
will begin to filter in Tuesday night behind the front...which 
will finally put an end to the cloud cover and fog. 


Dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday...with moisture 
starting to return to the region on Friday. Next shot of rainfall 
continues to look like a frontal passage on Saturday. Have continued 
to rely on the European model (ecmwf) with this feature as it has generally led the 
GFS in trends. 


Marine...a northeast to southwest oriented cold front will remain 
nearly stationary tonight...with low clouds and areas of fog 
expected over the nearshore waters behind the front...and areas of 
fog to the east this evening followed by strong southerly winds. 
The front will finally exit to the east tomorrow as a rigorous 
upper level trough approaches the Mississippi Valley. The frontal 
passage will be followed by a strong westerly flow becoming 
northwest. Have included scec headline beyond 20 nm for the waters 
east of Intracoastal City tonight for the increasing southerly 
winds...and a headline may need to be extended into Tuesday for 
the winds ahead of the front...then Tuesday night into Wednesday 
for the winds behind it. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 52 56 43 64 46 / 60 90 10 0 0 
kbpt 44 55 43 65 46 / 70 80 10 0 0 
kaex 45 53 41 61 40 / 70 100 10 0 0 
klft 59 63 44 63 44 / 50 90 20 0 0 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$