Weather

176 
fxus63 kpah 060505 aab 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
1105 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Update... 
updated for the 06z taf issuance. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 549 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009/ 


Short term forecast discussion... /00z Tuesday-12z Thursday/ see the 32f 
line now across much of southern Kentucky...but wet bulbed out in precipitation zone 
just to the south in west Tennessee. Anticipate similar trending further 
west in western Kentucky...as precipitation expands/develops northward in overrunning 
pattern tonight. Further south and east in western Kentucky...ie hop 
area...anticipate it'll reach/stay above 32f probably for majority 
of night...so we left those counties in that immediate vicinity 
out of the overnight advisory. This should be monitored closely in 
case it ends up not recovering...but think west/temperatures 35-40 just to 
the south...it'll be all liquid there. 


Best chance icing is north and west...particularly of Ohio 
River...where colder air will hang a little longer. Still 32f line 
makes its way north and west over nearly entire forecast area by early-middle 
morning Tuesday...as precipitation begins to shut off from the west. 


Tomorrow-tomorrow night...at or below 8-900mb stays saturated on 
soundings...so lingered small precipitation chances/which includes patchy 
-fzdz potential north and west where temperatures will be at or below 32f. Still 
another small pop/light event but something else to keep an eye 
upon in case a headline is warranted. 


Wednesday is the quiet near term forecast day with the evolution from 
warm/moist upper level swlys being replaced by broader 
colder/drier troffiness. 


Model of choice was local WRF for precipitation and blend of real time 
temperatures with going forecast tweeked toward NAM met MOS/ie slightly 
cooler. 


Long term forecast discussion... /12z Thursday-06z Tuesday/ 
minor tweaks to temperatures in the extended...mainly for collaboration 
purposes. However in the cold front's wake Saturday...have steady or 
falling temperatures in all areas except northwest where some sun may 
filter in and recover temperatures a few degrees during the day. Also the 
12z Monday GFS run shows precipitation already exited the area. In contrast 
the 00z Monday European model (ecmwf) still holds onto the precipitation. Will await the 12z 
European model (ecmwf) before pulling precipitation out. Also increased clouds first of next 
week for low pressure approach. May have to introduce precipitation there 
if we can establish some run to run continuity among the models. 
Also have 30 plus wind gusts for frontal passage on Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
areas of freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle will lift northeast 
across all taf sites through the 10-12z time frame. Beyond that 
surface temperatures should be above freezing so only liquid 
precipitation is expected. Mvrf ceilings/visibilities will lower to IFR at 
all sites. Light easterly winds will eventually shift around to 
the south. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for Ballard- 
Caldwell-Carlisle-Crittenden-Daviess-Fulton-Graves- 
Henderson-Hickman-Hopkins-Livingston-Lyon-Marshall- 
McCracken-McLean-Muhlenberg-Union KY-Webster. 


MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for Bollinger- 
Butler-Cape Girardeau-Carter-Mississippi-New Madrid-Perry 
MO-Ripley-Scott-Stoddard-Wayne MO. 


Illinois...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for Alexander- 
Edwards-Franklin-Gallatin-Hamilton-Hardin-Jackson-Jefferson- 
Johnson-Massac-Perry Illinois-Pope-Pulaski-Saline-Union Illinois-Wabash- 
Wayne IL-white-Williamson. 


In...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for Gibson-Pike- 
Posey-Spencer-Vanderburgh-Warrick. 


&& 


$$ 


Jp/db