Weather

591 
fxus63 klmk 102013 cca 
afdlmk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
300 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Short term (tonight and saturday)... 


A surface high pressure area along with an upper ridge building over 
the Ohio Valley and Appalachians will keep dry weather and warming 
temperatures over the area through Saturday. Temperatures tonight 
will be a few degrees warmer than this morning with lows mostly in 
the middle 50s. 


On Saturday as the high moves a little further east...winds will 
become more southeasterly...brining some moisture north from the 
North Carolina and Georgia. Cumulus clouds have developed across 
parts of Tennessee this afternoon and expect this moisture will be 
over parts of central Kentucky tomorrow. However skies will still be 
mostly sunny and temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 
80s. 




Long term (saturday night through friday)... 


Not many changes to the long term period expect to trend probability of precipitation back 
for next week and adjust temperatures up a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday. 


Saturday night through Monday... 


Upper level ridging will establish a strong hold over the southeast Continental U.S. 
And Midwest U.S. Starting this weekend. Meanwhile a surface high will 
be present over the NE Continental U.S.. this will translate to dry weather 
for the forecast area (fa) with above normal temperatures expected through 
Monday. Expect highs in the low to middle 80s for the most part sun 
through Monday with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Skies will be 
mostly clear/sunny through sun. Sun night and Monday partly cloudy 
skies will prevail as better relative humidity levels return to the area. 


Tuesday through Friday... 


Our next chance at precipitation will be the middle of next week. An upper 
level trough strengthening over the western Continental U.S. Will eject its 
energy NE into southern Canada/northern plains states by Monday. This 
system will develop a surface low and cold front...with the cold front 
bringing US the potential for precipitation. Still a wide range of model 
solutions concerning the timing of this system with the 12z GFS being 
the fastest of all solutions. With such a strong ridge in place over 
the forecast area...will trend toward a slower 0z European model (ecmwf) solution bringing showers 
and thunderstorms into the forecast area mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday night. 
Not looking for more than scattered convection at this time with moisture 
and dynamics looking to be lacking along this front. 


Long range models are also coming into agreement with an open upper 
level wave of energy approaching the region pretty quickly after the 
cold front passes. This trough will prolong precipitation chances through 
Friday although there may be a break in precipitation on Thursday. 


After the cold front passes sometime early Wednesday...temperatures will cool off 
into the upper 60s and lower 70s for highs Wed/Thu. Another push of 
cold air behind the trough passing Friday will cool temperatures off even 
farther with highs in the 60s anticipated for next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation (18z tafs)... 


High pressure moving to our east will keep VFR conditions over the 
area today and mostly clear skies tonight. Some patchy light fog 
could develop toward morning but it will burn off rapidly after 
sunrise. As the high moves to the east winds will become more 
southeasterly on Saturday with scattered cumulus mainly across the 
south. 


&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Louisville 


Short term...mbs 
long term....aml 
aviation.....Mbs