Weather

547 
fxus63 klmk 071713 
afdlmk 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky 
113 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Morning update... 


Morning update to remove fog wording from zones and increase sky 
cover. With a short/WV traveling just north of the forecast area 
this morning and another short/WV right behind it...southern Indiana 
and northern Kentucky should see mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies 
today. 


Short term (today and tonight)... 


High pressure will continue across the forecast area today and will 
overall be an average day for this time of year. Flat westerly flow 
aloft will persist through most of the day and into the night time 
hours before a shortwave impulse begins to move into the Midwest and 
flow begins to turn southwesterly. However...atmosphere is fairly 
dry...especially in low levels and expect only few-scattered middle and high 
level clouds through the next 24 hours. Temperatures will also 
remain near normal for early September with highs in the low 80s and 
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Surface winds will remain light 
out of the northwest at around 5 kts. 


Long term (monday through saturday)... 


Monday-Wednesday... 


At the beginning of this period...low pressure develops ahead of a 
shortwave embedded in broad trough over the plains. This will bring 
a cold front through the area sometime Tuesday morning. Kept probability of precipitation in 
Monday night ahead of the front...and taper probability of precipitation from west to east 
on Tuesday as it looks like a fast frontal passage. There is not 
much moisture with this front...so kept the low chance wording for now. 
Increased temperatures ahead of the front on Monday...especially over the 
southeastern County Warning Area. 


High pressure will return to the lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday and 
keep US dry. Highs will be quite comfy with upper 70s to low 80s 
being the rule. 


..rest of the forecast is dependant on Hurricane Ike... 


By Thursday Hurricane Ike should be entering the Gulf of 
Mexico...where at the same time a cold front will approach the 
region from the northwest. European model (ecmwf) still shows this feature...but it 
looks like the operational GFS holds off the front until Friday. But 
with added moisture streaming north from Ike...and the ensembles 
still showing many members indicating precipitation on Thursday...kept the 
small probability of precipitation in the forecast areawide. 


No changes made to Friday and Saturday. Models keep indicating added 
moisture pooling northward for late in the work week because of Ike. 
Later forecasts will need to address this as probability of precipitation may need to be 
added for Friday night into Saturday for scattered convection. For 
now kept probability of precipitation in for Friday but left the rest dry for now. 




&& 


Aviation (18z tafs)... 


Mostly a quiet taf period with VFR conditions expected for the most 
part. The only exception will be some brief MVFR fog tomorrow 
morning at bwg where winds will be light and rad inversion will be 
stronger at this taf as opposed to sdf and Lex. Also winds below 
10kt will shift this afternoon from SW to northwest as a weak frontal 
boundary moves over the area. Surface high pressure will move overhead 
tonight turning winds to the east by early tomorrow. 


&& 


Lmk watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Weather.Gov/Louisville 


Update.......aml 
short term...ls 
long term....al 
aviation.....Aml