Weather

163 
fxus61 Kiln 281943 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
343 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will push through the region on Friday...bringing a 
chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will then build 
into the area...resulting in dry conditions and warmer temperatures 
for the Holiday weekend. 
&& 


Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... 
clearing line pushing east across eastern portions of forecast area and some 
scattered cumulus has develop across the west. The clearing line 
should work its way through the rest of our eastern forecast area through 
late afternoon and then expect to lose diurnal cumulus elsewhere across 
our forecast area by early evening. This will likely result in a period of 
mainly clear skies later this evening before we begin to see 
clouds start to spread back in from the west overnight. Will keep 
tonight dry though as any precipitation should hold off until morning. Will 
stick pretty close to guidance with lows tonight generally in the 
lower to middle 60s. 
&& 


Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/... 
cold front forecast to push through the area on Friday. The models 
have backed off a bit on both the forcing and moisture but they 
are still hinting at some weak 925-850 mb convergence setting up 
across our area in the 18-21z time frame. This corresponds with 
period of better convective available potential energy...which are prognosticated to climb up into the 
1000-2000 j/kg range. Therefore...think we will see some isolated 
to scattered shower and thunderstorm development...especially as 
we head through the afternoon. Due to limited moisture and 
marginal low level forcing though...will limit probability of precipitation to just a 30 
percent chance. Any thunderstorm activity should then taper off 
fairly quickly Friday evening. High pressure will then build into 
the region through the day on Saturday...allowing for dry 
conditions and a bit of a warm up in temperatures. 
&& 


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/... 
models continue to be in good agreement on the large scale pattern 
through early next week...with dominant upper ridge building into 
the eastern U.S. On Sunday and keeping its hold over the region 
through midweek. This will keep temperatures well above average through 
the period while conditions remain dry. Went above guidance for 
temperatures toward Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high shifts to the 
east...bringing in warm southwesterly flow. Increasing 850 mb temperatures 
are supportive of highs in the lower 90s across the southwestern 
half of the County Warning Area by Tuesday. Next system of interest enters the 
picture late in the extended as the upper ridge flattens and a cold 
front moves into the Great Lakes. Sided with the slower European model (ecmwf) 
keeping the frontal boundary to the north of the County Warning Area through 
Thursday...so did not introduce probability of precipitation at this time. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
low clouds are slowly eroding from the west/SW today with diurnal cumulus 
on the periphery. Ceilings will continue to lift and improve 
before clearing the east by 00z. Middle and high clouds will be 
approaching after 00z ahead of the next weather system. Some fog/mist may 
develop before clouds thicken but given uncertainty on how fast 
that will occur have only gone as low as MVFR in the eastern sites. 


Have a mention of cumulonimbus late in the taf period in the west due to 
the approach of a cold front. Expect areal coverage to be limited 
with only weak forcing expected toward the end of the taf period. 




Outlook...thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jgl 
near term...jgl 
short term...jgl 
long term...hawblitzel 
aviation...Arkansas