Weather

028 
fxus63 kict 300010 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
710 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Aviation... 
00z tafs...ict/sln/hut/cnu/rsl...low-level moisture will surge 
north later tonight...which may promote a few thunderstorms after 
midnight...best chances over the western half of Kansas...but 
confidence is low on these chances. Best moisture transport will 
likely focus well west of the rsl terminal...so did not insert 
thunder in tafs at this time. An isolated shower or storm cannot 
be ruled out late tonight farther east for the ict/hut/sln/cnu 
tafs either...but confidence is even lower with these chances. For 
Saturday...with moisture returning north and a very weak upper 
level disturbance passing over the area...cannot rule out a few 
isolated showers and/or storms across the area. Confidence and 
expected coverage is low...so did not mention anything in tafs at 
this time. 


Kleinsasser 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 315 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008/ 


Discussion... 
main forecast concerns will deal with lingering 
precipitation for this evening...followed by chances again over 
the weekend then toward mid-week. 


Tonight: 
surface boundary extended across northern Oklahoma at mid-afternoon. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms extended along the 
Oklahoma/Kansas border. The front should drift slowly southward this 
evening. Will keep small probability of precipitation in till about sunset then think rain 
chances will be just to our south. After that dry conditions...light 
east winds and overnight lows in the low 60s. 


Saturday and sunday: 
the surface boundary lays up across northern Oklahoma on Saturday 
and will continue to be the focus for scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. With a high pressure ridge across our area. Am 
thinking we will start the day on Saturday dry. The surface 
boundary...especially over western Oklahoma will move north during 
the day and into southwest Kansas. Scattered storms are possible 
across our southwest counties Saturday afternoon and into the 
evening. Sunday the gradient tightens up a bit which will increase 
the southerly flow and cause afternoon highs to be a few degrees 
warmer than Saturday. With the surface moisture and daytime heating 
will see scattered cumulus forming. Don't see much in any upper 
level support so for now am leaving the forecast dry. 


Labor Day through tuesday: 
warm and humid conditions look to prevail for this time period. With 
the surface high pressure system over the northeast U.S. Then a low 
pressure trough along the Lee slopes of The Rockies...breezy south 
winds will be on tap for Monday. With the low level moisture and 
convergence between these 2 systems...could see a shower or 
thunderstorm pop up on Monday. Right now think the chance and areal 
extent of this would be only isolated at best so have left out of 
the forecast. 


Wednesday through friday: 
this portion of the forecast is going to need to be watched closely 
as we have the potential for 2 weather makers to join up over our 
forecast area. In coordination with surrounding offices am 
trending toward the European model...however the big question is 
timing. With that in mind...we should see a cold front work its way 
into the Central Plains in association with the upper level trough 
working into the mountain west. At the same time the remnants of 
Gustav is prognosticated to move through eastern Oklahoma...then hook up 
with the cold front...possibly in eastern Kansas. If the European 
were to be the perfect forecast could see significant rains across the 
eastern half of the forecast area through this time frame. At this 
point still a lot of uncertainty on the timing and speed of Gustav 
so am maintaining chances of thunderstorms but not going any 
stronger than that. 


Elder 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs [rsl/sln/hut/ict/cnu] 
weak 850 mb frontal zone over south central/southeastern Kansas is 
prognosticated to drift a bit southward to along or just south of the Oklahoma 
border this afternoon. Models show up to 2000 j/kg of cape along 
the front but weak shear. Given this...trend should be for 
scattered convection to focus more to those counties near the 
Oklahoma border. Could be some distant cumulonimbus at ict and cnu sites 
this PM...but not enough confidence to put in thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time. 
Otherwise...look for light east winds and VFR conditions during 
the forecast valid period with slightly drier air advecting in. 


Caruso 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 63 87 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 
Hutchinson 63 87 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 
Newton 63 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Eldorado 63 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Winfield-kwld 65 87 68 89 / 10 20 20 10 
Russell 61 87 64 90 / 10 10 10 10 
Great Bend 63 87 66 90 / 10 20 20 10 
Salina 62 87 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 
McPherson 63 87 67 89 / 10 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 64 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Chanute 61 87 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Iola 60 87 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 
Parsons-kppf 63 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$