Weather

817 
fxus63 kict 131147 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
647 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Aviation...12z tafs...krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
strong cold front will surge southeast across the area 
today...abruptly switching winds from south/southeast to 
northwest. IFR ceilings should continue to spread southeast 
immediately behind the front...but will gradually lift for rsl and 
sln by the afternoon...as drier air filters southeast. A swath of 
numerous showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will 
gradually shift east today across the area. Another swath of 
numerous showers/embedded thunderstorms will develop from the 
south late tonight...as a 2nd weather system approaches from the 
west. 


Kleinsasser 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008/ 


Discussion... 
forecast concerns...heavy rainfall potential and possible flooding 
over previously saturated soils across south central Kansas through 
Tuesday night. 


The tail end of the initial high level tropical surge with Norbert 
will exit central Kansas later this morning. Isolated thunder and 
pockets of locally heavy rainfall will be possible until midday. 
Meanwhile...a strong cold front will continue moving steadily east 
across central Kansas...reaching the Turnpike area by midday and 
then across southeast Kansas during the afternoon. Much cooler air 
will advect in behind this front...with falling temperatures into 
the 50s. 


The remaining lobe of the western upper trough is prognosticated to begin 
lifting out across The Rockies late tonight/Tuesday...before 
ejecting out across the Central Plains/Midwest on Tuesday night 
into Wednesday. This will induce an elevated low and middle level 
wave along the strong baroclinic zone...which will ride northeast 
across the forecast area late tonight through Tuesday. Rather 
impressive isentropic lift and frontogenetical forcing is 
expected to result in an area of locally heavy/training rainfall 
across portions of south central and central Kansas...with quantitative precipitation forecast 
amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. While this may not exceed 
flash flood guidance in a 6 or 12 hour period across most 
areas...there is some concern that localized flooding problems 
could occur over areas that recently experienced record rainfall 
of 10 to 14 inches in the past 32 days. This would be from just 
southwest of Wichita...across the west part of the metropolitan area to 
just north of the Wichita metropolitan. Any heavy rainfall is likely to 
quickly become run-off...with even a couple inches potentially 
causing some minor flooding problems. Therefore will go with a 
Flash Flood Watch for several counties across south central 
Kansas late tonight through Tuesday night. 


Temperatures will remain very chilly on Tuesday with the cold 
rains and embedded thunder gradually tapering off into Wednesday 
morning. Little change to the outer periods of the forecast. 


Darmofal 


Aviation...06z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
main aviation concern will be precipitation and low ceilings as cold front 
sweeps across the area. 


Cold front just passed through khlc and will continue to progress 
southeast overnight. This front will pass through krsl around 08z 
and kict around 18z. Along and just behind this front IFR ceilings will 
be likely along with scattered showers and isolated storms. These 
low ceilings will persist through the majority of Monday with the bulk of 
the precipitation affecting locations along and east of the Turnpike after 
18z. 


Lawson 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 68 46 55 48 / 90 90 100 80 
Hutchinson 62 44 51 44 / 100 90 100 80 
Newton 65 45 52 46 / 90 90 100 80 
Eldorado 69 46 55 48 / 80 90 100 80 
Winfield-kwld 73 49 60 49 / 80 90 100 80 
Russell 51 41 51 42 / 90 60 80 60 
Great Bend 52 42 50 43 / 90 70 80 70 
Salina 60 43 52 44 / 100 80 90 70 
McPherson 61 43 52 43 / 100 80 100 80 
Coffeyville 76 54 70 53 / 30 60 60 50 
Chanute 75 51 66 51 / 30 70 70 60 
Iola 74 50 64 50 / 30 70 70 60 
Parsons-kppf 75 52 68 52 / 30 70 60 50 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning 
for ksz052-068-082-083-091. 


&& 


$$