Weather

179 
fxus63 kddc 211955 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
255 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


Precipitation chances tomorrow night and Saturday will be the main 
forecast concern. 


Latest upper air observation show that the low over OK has started to open 
up and move northeastward, while the next vigorous trough digs 
into the northwestern Continental U.S.. at the sfc, a Lee trough continues 
over the northern and Central High plains, with southerly winds 
bringing plenty of low level moisture into the area. The upper 
trough will continue towards The Rockies tonight, with the surface 
trough axis moving slightly eastward. Think that this will keep 
the best moisture to the east of the cwa, and more southerly winds 
and less upslope should keep stratus and fog from forming tonight. 
Lows should be mainly in the 60s. The upper trough will eject out 
into the Dakotas and Minnesota tomorrow, which should help push a cold 
front down towards our northwestern border late in the day. Plenty 
of sunshine and 850mb temperatures getting into the upper 20s to low 30s 
should allow highs to get into the 90s ahead of the front. The 
best upper support will be with the main trough well to our north, 
so we will have to depend on convection firing down the front 
Friday night. Best chances for that look to be in our northeast, 
so bumped up probability of precipitation a tad there. 


The boundary should remain somewhere near the County Warning Area into Saturday, 
with the models putting the boundary in slightly different places. 
It does look like it starts to wash out, with surface winds becoming 
more east-southeasterly. Instability will depend on exactly how 
much cloud cover sticks around, but with some surface heating and 500 
and 700mb temperatures starting to come down it looks like we have a good 
shot of storms redeveloping along the boundary. Bumped up probability of precipitation a 
bit in the afternoon, and will continue to keep highs a bit lower 
in the upper 80s, although if things are completely socked in it 
could be even lower. 


Days 3-7... 


Medium range models continue to indicate upper level ridging 
building in the western Continental U.S. Sunday and moving across the Central 
Plains early next week. Meanwhile, another upper level trough of low 
pressure will quickly push into the Pacific northwest early in the 
period. The models then begin to diverge somewhat in detail. 
However, all of them generally indicate the upper level system 
transitioning eastward into the Central Plains towards middle to late 
week, which may bring the next decent chance for precipitation to the area. 
As for Sunday, the chance for precipitation will linger across the County Warning Area as 
500 mb vorticity maxes coming off the building ridge to the West, Pass 
through the westerly flow aloft across western Kansas. Surface high 
pressure sliding down behind a recent frontal passage will quickly return a 
relatively easterly upslope flow across the County Warning Area which will keep 
ample moisture in the area. Both GFS and ecmwf(hires) indicate 
dewpoints at 850 mb remaining up around 14c to 16c across much of the 
forecast area. As a result, cannot rule out possible thunderstorm 
development. Will keep slight probability of precipitation in. Expect conditions to quiet 
down a bit until the next upper level system moves into the region 
middle to late next week. 


As for temperatures, expect a gradual warm up through middle week as 
upper level ridging takes over across the Central Plains...just 
ahead of the arrival of the next upper level trough. For Sunday, 
highs will be warm with temperatures at 850 mb ranging from the low to 
middle 20s(c) across much of the County Warning Area. Expect highs near to just above 
normal through the end of the period. Plan no significant changes to 
temperatures. 


Aviation... 


A Lee side trough of low pressure will persist in eastern Colorado 
through tomorrow which will influence light southerly winds across 
southwest Kansas overnight. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions at all 
taf sites through the period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 66 96 68 89 / 0 0 20 30 
gck 65 96 65 89 / 0 0 20 30 
eha 63 96 64 88 / 0 0 10 30 
lbl 65 96 66 90 / 0 0 10 30 
hys 66 96 67 87 / 0 0 40 30 
p28 68 95 70 91 / 0 0 20 30 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn26/32/32