Weather

661 
fxus63 kddc 130820 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
320 am CDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


The main forecast challenges are quantitative precipitation forecast with possible heavy rainfall in 
the east County Warning Area into Wednesday morning and temperatures into Tuesday 
night. 


Cold front is racing into western Kansas and just west of Dodge City 
and will be through Medicine Lodge by around 15z. Have used a non 
diurnal temperature trend for the area ahead of the cold front this 
morning. Looks like much of the rainfall ends east of Dodge City by 
noon but returns on Tuesday afternoon ahead of the next shortwave 
trough. Will trend probability of precipitation from near 20 percent far west to near 100 
percent in the Medicine Lodge area by this afternoon. Highs today 
look to be cool and only in the middle to upper 40s with north winds 
from 25 to 35 miles per hour this morning decreasing this afternoon. There also 
could be some breaks in the clouds in the west today into early 
tonight before clouds come back in ahead of the next shortwave 
trough. Will go with lows in the middle to upper 30s far west to middle 
40s in the southeast. On Tuesday look for increasing clouds with a 
stratiform rain moving north into much of the forecast area during the day. 
Probability of precipitation increase back to 60 to 80 percent. Could have some areas of 
heavy rainfall from 1 to 3 inches with locally higher in the 
southeast County Warning Area from Coldwater to Pratt and Medicine Lodge into 
Wednesday morning just ahead of the shortwave, however at this time 
think with a general stratiform rain event, the ground will be able 
to take a nice steady rain without much chance for flooding. Highs 
on Tuesday continue cold in the middle 40s with mostly upper 30s to 
lower 4o on Wednesday night with lots of clouds and rain. 


Days 3-7... 


The upper trough will still be over eastern Colorado at 12z Wednesday. 
Rain should still be occurring during the morning hours from 
ddc east. The ec/UKMET show a weak cold surge during the day, 
with 850mb rh's between 90-100% in the eastern half of the forecast 
area through 00z Thu, along with 850mb temperatures from 4 to 6c. This 
argues for a colder fcst, so maxes were lower to the upper 50s 
to lower 60s. This may not be cool enough but we are already 
several degrees colder than our neighbors. 


The next shortwave trough will approach by Thursday but this 
system should be lacking moisture. European model (ecmwf) 850mb temperatures stay around +8 
at ddc. Maxes were lowered a few degrees. 


The European model (ecmwf)/Canadian are trending toward a more progressive pattern 
for days 6-10. This would mean dry weather. In fact both models 
have a trough over the Great Lakes by day 10. This is a large 
change from the previous European model (ecmwf). We will see if this trend 
continues. 


&& 


Aviation... 


North winds and IFR ceilings along with scattered rain showers 
will persist this morning. Ceilings should improve to VFR at gck 
by afternoon, but MVFR ceilings should hold at hys/ddc. It is 
possible that ceilings could rise to 3000ft or higher at ddc/hys by 
21z. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 45 40 47 40 / 30 30 90 90 
gck 47 38 47 38 / 30 30 70 70 
eha 49 38 47 38 / 30 40 80 80 
lbl 48 41 48 39 / 30 40 90 90 
hys 45 39 47 40 / 30 20 70 70 
p28 61 44 50 45 / 100 100 100 100 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn06/24