Weather

137 
fxus63 kddc 070847 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
347 am CDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


The main forecast challenges are high temps, strong winds, and 
thunder chances on Monday with cold front. 


Current cold front into central Oklahoma with cool high pressure 
into western Kansas. A large area of showers and thunderstorms 
developed from Medicine Lodge to Dodge City with an area of 700mb 
frontogenetical forcing and this forcing is expected to lift north 
this morning into the Hays area. Also some dense fog formed in the 
Hays area but with showers developing the dense fog is now spotty 
and should continue to improve visibilities. As upper jet lifts 
north ahead of next trough the showers should end in the north by 
later in the afternoon as any forcing lifts north. Stratus should 
erode to partly cloudy skies far west and temperatures could make it into 
the middle 70s west, while in the central and northeast County Warning Area the stratus 
will have a harder time lifting completely. Will go with highs today 
in the 60s northeast to middle 70s southwest. For tonight look for the 
cold front to sag into the northern County Warning Area with higher dewpoints 
pooling in the north. Will up probability of precipitation to around 60 percent. Also may 
have a few hail reports with these storms as dynamic forcing 
increases ahead of shortwave trough. The cold front should quickly 
move across western Kansas on Monday and be through Medicine Lodge 
by 1 or 2 PM. With such good cold air advection current non diurnal 
temperature trend was kept with afternoon temperatures falling into the middle 
50s. Ahead of front in the southeast medium Lodge could hit middle 80s. 
Will continue with small probability of precipitation with the cold front on Monday and into 
Monday night east. Winds may also approach Wind Advisory criteria on 
Monday with cold front for a few hours. 


Days 3-7... 


Not much time to look at the extended with ongoing weather. The 
period starts off with near zonal flow aloft as the next significant 
shortwave digs into the Pacific northwest. The cool surface high over 
the plains will begin to move eastward. Winds should come back 
around to the south and we should see some sun, but with 850mb temperatures 
still in the low teens c highs should be fairly cool. Lowered 
readings a few degrees into the low to middle 70s. Southwesterly flow 
sets up by Wednesday as the shortwave digs into ID, with Lee 
troughing getting going again at the surface. Temperatures should get back 
into the 80s. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in pretty good agreement with a 
boundary moving down into the area sometime Wednesday 
night/Thursday, so continued with the probability of precipitation and slightly cooler temperatures 
Thursday that we have going. Models start to diverge later in the 
week as the GFS brings the shortwave out into the Western Plains by 
Friday, while the European model (ecmwf) holds off until Saturday. For now, will 
keep the forecast as it is and only made minor tweaks to improve 
intersite consistency. 


Aviation... 


Upslope flow brought areas of dense fog to our northern forecast 
area around 06z. However, isentropic lift bringing showers and 
thunderstorms further north has brought some improvement, with khys 
going from 1/2sm to 10sm in a half an hour. Will watch trends, but 
still think there could be a period of MVFR to IFR ceiling and visible 
towards sunrise. Conditions should improve to VFR by 15z, and even 
the middle level clouds should start to decrease by evening. Could see 
some patchy fog redevelopment after 06z tonight. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 67 59 70 45 / 10 20 30 10 
gck 68 54 60 43 / 0 20 20 0 
eha 75 55 64 44 / 0 20 20 10 
lbl 72 58 66 45 / 0 20 20 10 
hys 66 58 60 43 / 20 60 60 10 
p28 74 61 85 52 / 20 20 40 20 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn06/26