Weather

397 
fxus63 kddc 291845 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
145 PM CDT Friday Aug 29 2008 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 
elevated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain associated with a weak upper level trough was 
moving southeast out of Colorado and into SW Kansas earlier this 
afternoon. Based on 18z verification looks like both the NAM and 
GFS were doing a decent job with this feature and moved it across 
the bulk of our County Warning Area through 00z. Will continue to monitor the 
track and coverage of these storms and make adjustments through 
the day on track and duration as needed. By evening the better 
forcing ahead of the upper wave appears to be near or just south 
of the border so initial plan for tonight is to retain mention of 
small probability of precipitation near the OK border for a few hours after 00z. 


The stationary front which was located in Oklahoma this afternoon 
will move northward as a warm front tonight and by Saturday 
afternoon both models forecast this boundary in our eastern County Warning Area. Dewpoints 
expected to be in the middle 60s ahead of this front with 00z convective available potential energy 
in this area around 1000j/kg. Both models also show a 500 mb vorticity lobe 
moving northward out of OK into Kansas late in the day so will 
continue with the small probability of precipitation in our southeast County Warning Area. May even spread this 
area a little further northward late Sat and early Sat night. 


By Sunday this front is prognosticated to be well east of the area as 
pressure continue to fall along the western High Plains. Although 
there will be breezy/windy conditions developing on Saturday it 
appears at this time winds will be a little stronger on Sunday. 
Have retained winds in the 20 to 30 miles per hour but afternoon winds may be 
closer to 30 than 20 Sunday afternoon. 


Temperatures this weekend still look on track based on models 
soundings. May be a degree or two warmer on Sunday but at this 
time will leave highs as is. Did bump up lows some both tonight 
and Saturday night. Cloud cover tonight...mainly in the south and 
west and then winds Saturday night will aid in keeping temperatures up. 


Days 3-7... 
an upper level ridge of high pressure will be in the eastern Continental U.S. 
To begin the period while an upper level trough of low pressure will 
be dropping southeast through the Pacific northwest. Medium range 
models are in fair agreement indicating this upper level system 
continuing it's southeasterly track Monday until it begins to eject 
northeast across the northern rockies on Tuesday. A surface low will 
develop and strengthen along the Colorado border ahead of a cold 
front that the upper level system will drag into western Kansas late 
Tuesday or Wednesday. It will be responsible for bringing the 
better chance for precipitation to the region through middle week. The issue 
then becomes what effect Gustav will have on our County Warning Area if model trends 
continue as they are. The latest GFS and Canadian model runs 
diverge from the ecmwf(hires) and keep much of the precipitation well to 
our east and southeast. Whereas, the ecmwf(hires) brings the 
tropical system up a bit quicker and further to the west right along 
our eastern border. Regardless, too much uncertainty remains with 
where Gustav will track but any chance for precipitation towards the end of 
the period will remain a bit higher in the east. Will keep a slight 
mention of probability of precipitation at this point with a bump up to low end chance probability of precipitation 
for Tuesday night/ Wednesday in association with the cold front 
moving in. 


Expect a gradual warming trend early in the period as a 
strengthening low along the Colorado border will influence fairly 
strong southerlies across southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday. 
Temperatures at 850 mb will be in the low to middle 20s(c) across the County Warning Area 
Monday with a slight bump up on Tuesday. Highs are expected to drop 
off just a bit Wednesday on through the remainder of the period in 
wake of a frontal passage and possible increased cloudiness from remnants of 
Gustav moving up from the Gulf. Plan to make only slight adjustments 
to temperatures. 




&& 


Aviation... 
surface high pressure will fill into eastern Kansas this evening 
which will bring an easterly upslope flow to southwest Kansas. High 
relative humidities and relatively light winds will allow for the 
possible development of low level stratus with some areas of patchy 
fog during the late overnight hours. Expect VFR conditions this 
evening with possible MVFR/IFR conditions towards daybreak...mainly 
south and east of khys and kgck. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 66 87 69 90 / 0 10 10 20 
gck 66 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 20 
eha 65 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 20 
lbl 67 87 67 86 / 20 0 0 20 
hys 64 88 71 91 / 0 10 10 20 
p28 67 88 70 89 / 10 20 20 20 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn18/32/32