Weather

651 
fxus63 kddc 052026 
afdddc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
226 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Discussion... 


Days 1-2... 


Tranquil weather will continue through 00z Thursday with the only 
challenge being temperatures. 


Upper air analysis this morning revealed very strong 250mb jet 
from northern old Mexico through the Central Plains northeast to 
the Ohio Valley with 165 knots core from the Texas Panhandle into 
central Illinois. Right entrance region of this strong jet was 
across much of Texas where precipitation was occurring in this 
enhanced region of upward motion in combination with abundant Gulf 
moisture. 


Middle-upper level trough axis will shift east across The Rockies 
into the High Plains tonight and early tomorrow. This will force 
the current Lee trough to shift east in response. Center of trough 
axis will be positioned across southwest Kansas tonight and a roughly 
6 hour period of light and variable winds is expected. This should 
help temperatures fall into the teens for lows. Some middle level cloud is 
expected associated with the trough axis, however cloud coverage 
is anticipated to be just scattered instead of broken or overcast. 
On Tuesday...winds will become north and gusty at times. Grids 
will reflect north winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with some gusts to 30 miles per hour 
at times. No cold advection is expected given the strong downslope 
component of the flow upwind. Thus highs should reach middle 40s 
across most locations of southwest Kansas. The next (anticyclonic) jet 
core will approach western Kansas Tuesday night into early 
Wednesday with decent height rises and Lee trough development once 
again given the strong Cross-Mountain component of the middle level 
flow pattern. Excellent downslope warming will result and highs 
Wednesday should warm nicely into the upper 50s to lower 60s 
across at least the southwestern half of ddc forecast area. Something to 
watch, however, will be a narrow tongue of cold high pressure 
nosing down from the Dakotas as shown by the European model (ecmwf) model...in 
response to a subtle northwest flow perturbation that this model 
is picking up on. Thus am hesitant to warm the northeast counties 
as much as the rest of the ddc forecast area. 


Days 3-7... 


Northwest flow remains prognosticated across the plains through the end of the 
work week as our next more sig short wave trough moves into the western Continental U.S.. 
European model (ecmwf) and GFS today were still suggesting frontal passage sometime during the 
day on Friday. Timing of frontal passage is going to be the key to highs 
on Friday as 850 mb temperatures ahead of this front were still prognosticated by 
both models to range from 8-12c. Over the southern 1/2 of the County Warning Area 
have opted to based highs on the warmer 18z 850 mb temperatures of the GFS 
while trended towards the cooler European model (ecmwf) in our N/NW. 


On Saturday a cold dome of high pressure will move across the cntl 
plains with the coolest air still prognosticated by both models to be 
across our eastern County Warning Area. Over our western County Warning Area some downslope warming 
appears to be trying to develop. This warming trends becomes more 
apparent over all western Kansas on Sunday as 850 mb temperatures warm back to 
4-6c. Given the decent agreement between the two models on Sunday 
will be trending towards these warmer temperatures for highs. 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 18z tafs...vrf conditions expected over the next 24 hours so 
will concentrate on the wind speeds and direction. A deepening Lee 
trough today will increase the southerly winds this afternoon. Tonight 
a developing area of low pressure over eastern Colorado will cross SW Kansas into 
OK. This will allow for a wind shift during the overnight hours 
which is represented well from the mav/met. Will therefore follow 
guidance for timing of wind shift during the overnight hours. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 18 47 21 56 / 0 0 0 10 
gck 19 47 20 57 / 0 0 0 10 
eha 23 47 23 61 / 0 0 0 0 
lbl 21 48 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 
hys 17 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 10 
p28 18 46 24 57 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fn25/18/18