Weather

713 
fxus63 kgld 281758 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
1158 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


Discussion... 
455 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


A cold front is currently making it's way across the forecast area 
early this morning. 


Forecast focus will be on temperatures in the short term and the 
possibility of precipitation Friday night as a short wave trough 
moves over the tri-state region in the upper flow and again on 
Monday night as another cold front makes it's way across the 
forecast area. 


The main upper ridge moves into place over the central U.S. By 
Saturday morning. Embedded in the upper flow towards the back side 
of the Main Ridge is a short wave trough that is not well resolved 
as it moves through the tri-state region during the overnight 
hours on Friday night. Models are hinting at a few showers and 
thunderstorms forming the vicinity of a weak surface trough that 
may be the tail end of the front moving through today that lifts 
back across the region on Friday. With poor pop agreement across 
the Central High plains region between forecast offices...am 
reluctant to introduce an area of precipitation under the big fat 
ridge. Have...however...hinted at it with some silent 12s Friday 
night and will let subsequent packages resolve the issue. 


The upper flow pattern amplifies through the weekend with the 
upper flow becoming increasingly southwest over the High Plains 
region. Several short waves are embedded in the upper flow but it 
appears the main impulses are a weak trough that lifts out of the 
main upper trough axis on Sunday night with a stronger impulse lifting 
east of The Rockies late Monday night and Tuesday morning. This 
should produce a few showers and thunderstorms across the region 
between Sunday night and Tuesday morning as a surface trough also 
develops parallel to the upper flow late in the weekend and is 
slow to move across the tri-state region Monday night...providing 
a focus for convection to fire on. 


Lockhart 
&& 


Aviation... 
1149 am MDT Thursday Aug 28 2008 


For the 18z taf cycle...VFR conditions are expected through the 
entire taf period. Quite breezy winds from the north and northeast 
are expected to diminish slightly after about 19z or 20z...then 
become light and variable after 03z. Winds are then expected to 
set up out of the southeast by 14z at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Models 
disagree about cloudiness tomorrow. Went with the NAM showing a 
low level ceiling from about 03z to 14z for both kgld and kmck. 
Next shift may need to revisit this...although either way should 
not result in a dip into MVFR conditions. 


Blm 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$