Weather

171 
fxus63 kict 070251 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
950 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008 


Update... 


Updated to tweak probability of precipitation slightly. 


Upper air analysis shows the 850mb front still situated from the OK 
Panhandle through southern MO with strong warm advection now 
occurring over the OK Panhandle. This warm advection along with 
isentropic lift along the 310k surface has resulted in the 
development of some accus southwest of the forecast area...which is 
evident on the last few infrared images. Am expecting this area of 
enhancement to develop into showers and isolated storms by midnight 
and track east. The latest NAM looks to be doing a decent job with 
where precipitation is expected to break out. Therefore went ahead and 
decreased precipitation chances over central Kansas with most of the activity 
expected to be confined to south central and southeast Kansas tonight. 


Lawson 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 658 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Aviation... 


For 00z tafs...main aviation concern will be low ceilings and 
visibilities tonight. 


All of area is currently socked-in with low clouds. Downglide along 
the 305k surface is resulting in some clearing over central Kansas while 
some weak upglide along the same surface is keeping some light 
showers and br over southeast and south central Kansas. At this time it appears 
IFR ceilings are occurring where upglide is present. Some more 
widespread showers and storms will develop around 06z along and 
north of a front situated along the Kansas/OK border. Kict and kcnu will 
have the best chance to experience this activity generally between 
08z and 14z. 


Lawson 


Previous discussion... /issued 317 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2008/ 


Discussion... 


The main concern with this forecast package will be the rain chances 
again across the area during the next couple of days. 


Tonight: 
latest radar loop was showing the light showers gradually exiting 
central and south central Kansas. This area of light rain should 
continue to exit the area this evening with good middle level 
subsidence developing behind the upper level wave. Latest infrared 
satellite loop was displaying this already...with the cloud decks 
becoming warmer which is an indication that the saturated layer was 
beginning to thin out. If this cloud layer continues to thin 
out...we may have to watch for the stratus build down effect to take 
place across central Kansas this evening. This area will also 
experience good boundary layer decoupling which could lead to some 
dense fog potential. Evening shift will have to keep an eye on the 
ceilings. For now...we are just going to mention areas of fog. Later 
tonight we will once again start up the isentropic lift (305-310k) 
in response to the energy moving out of the Desert Southwest. With 
such a saturated air mass in place across southern Kansas it will 
not take much to get the rain going again. As a result...we raised 
probability of precipitation well above guidance. Confidence is once again very high that 
nearly everyone in southern Kansas will get wet overnight. 


Sunday: 
this area of rain may move out of the picture a little quicker 
tomorrow morning with the majority of the lift moving into eastern 
Kansas where they will see morning rainfall. Behind this area of 
rain...the clouds will most likely hang in again and keep 
temperatures well below normal again with more coolest high 
temperature records possibly being set. As a result...we have 
lowered highs considerably on Sunday. 


Sunday night-monday: 
there is some uncertainty between the GFS/European model (ecmwf) and UKMET on where 
the best chance of rain will occur on Sunday night and Monday. 
Latest GFS shows the best isentropic lift/moisture transport 
developing over northern Kansas late Sunday night and Monday 
morning. Meanwhile...the European model (ecmwf)/UKMET are showing another batch of 
showers and thunderstorms over central and southern Kansas in 
response to some subtle waves moving through the Southern Plains. As 
a result...we have kept a high chance of showers and thunderstorms 
in the picture for most of the area. Maximum temperatures on Monday will 
be really tricky. If the sun does break out on Monday afternoon 
ahead of the front...we may see temperatures climb into the 80s. If 
we get stuck in the convective debris again...then we will be hung 
in the 60s or 70s. We will play the conservative Route for now. 


Monday night-tuesday: 
the front is still prognosticated to push its way through the area on 
Monday night which will bring another shot of showers and 
thunderstorms to southern Kansas if we see enough instability 
develop ahead of the front. Otherwise...a very nice day is prognosticated 
for Tuesday as cool high pressure builds in with highs generally in 
the 70s. 


Wednesday-saturday: 
we did not make too many changes to this forecast. The models are 
still advertising good isentropic lift/moisture transport 
setting up over the area Wednesday with a fairly strong cold front 
moving through on Thursday. As a result...we will see more chances 
of showers and thunderstorms with some strong storms possible on 
Thursday. Next weekend looks more promising for sunshine as Canadian 
high pressure builds over the area. 


Cox 


Aviation...18z tafs [rsl/sln/hut/ict/cnu] 
batch of showers/ts over central/southeastern Kansas should gradually shift 
eastward out of area by middle afternoon as shortwave trough over Central 
Plains slides E-newd. MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities possible with that 
convection. Otherwise prevailing MVFR ceilings will likely hang tough 
for much of afternoon given isentropic lift continues. Model 
soundings on GFS/NAM-WRF show potential for clouds to erode this 
evening in wake of shortwave trough...which could lead to fog formation 
in central Kansas. However not confident that this will actually 
occur given amount of cloud cover currently in place across 
region. Next round of showers/ts will develop over southern hi plains 
this evening and spread northeastward across mainly S-cntrl/southeastern Kansas late 
tonight into Sunday. This will be in response to intense 
isentropic lift and some moisture transport. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 57 72 62 84 / 60 40 40 40 
Hutchinson 56 69 60 79 / 40 30 40 40 
Newton 56 70 61 81 / 50 40 40 40 
Eldorado 57 72 62 83 / 60 40 40 40 
Winfield-kwld 58 75 64 83 / 80 40 30 30 
Russell 55 66 57 67 / 20 30 50 40 
Great Bend 55 67 58 69 / 20 30 50 40 
Salina 55 68 58 72 / 20 30 50 40 
McPherson 56 68 59 77 / 30 30 50 40 
Coffeyville 59 75 64 80 / 70 50 20 30 
Chanute 58 73 64 81 / 60 70 30 40 
Iola 57 72 63 80 / 60 70 40 40 
Parsons-kppf 58 74 64 81 / 70 60 30 30 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 

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