Weather

657 
fxus63 kict 112011 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
311 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 
main forecast concerns are duration and intensity of 
precipitation through the middle of the week and temperatures 
especially Monday and Tuesday. 


Tonight-sunday: 
a surface boundary stretches from southwest Kansas through central 
Kansas and central Nebraska this afternoon...and is slowly lifting 
to the north through the afternoon hours. Rain has been expanding 
across central and western Kansas through the day...with some 
embedded thunder. This area of rain will gradually expand 
eastward...albeit slowly. All of central Kansas...as well as 
portions of south central Kansas will see the rain begin by Sunday 
morning. The best moisture transport will continue to be across the 
western portion of the forecast area through the day 
Sunday...therefore moderate to heavy rainfall could impact the same 
areas for much of the day. 


Monday: 
heavy rainfall...along with thunder at times...will be possible 
especially west of the Kansas Turnpike on Monday. We have kept 
the best rainfall chances and highest precipitation totals in that 
area. While the models are still not in the best agreement with this 
system...it appears that the GFS is coming in line with the European model (ecmwf) 
trend from the past few days. The heaviest rainfall will likely 
occur during the day Monday. With moisture flow from the 
southwest...and the front laying across the area from southwest to 
northeast...moderate to heavy precipitation will likely affect the 
same area for many hours. Localized flooding will be possible 
with this event...as some areas could receive 3 to 4 inches of 
rainfall before Tuesday night. Southeast Kansas may not get a lot of 
rain out of this system...as it will move off to the northeast and 
moisture transport will weaken across that area. 


Temperatures on Monday have a big bust potential. The surface front 
will be pushing through the area...making it through krsl around 
sunrise and then to kict around 18z. A solid deck of clouds and the 
precipitation will keep temperatures from moving very much through 
the day...and highs may not be much above 50 degrees in central 
Kansas and around 60 degrees in much of south central Kansas. 
Southeast Kansas could very well get into the upper 70s on Monday as 
that area will have less precipitation/thick cloud cover and more 
time to warm up before the front moves through. With such a large 
temperature contrast through the area...there is potential for a 
large error in any given location. 


Tuesday-friday: 
the GFS is trending toward a slower solution today...keeping 
precipitation going across the forecast area through Tuesday night. 
Precipitation will eventually move eastward on Tuesday night or 
Wednesday...with high pressure building back into the region. 


Temperatures on Tuesday will again be tricky...but hopefully not as 
much of a contrast as on Monday. The cloud cover will persist and 
precipitation will lingering on Tuesday...so a large diurnal swing 
is not expected. Highs in the middle 50s in central Kansas to the 
middle 60s in southeast Kansas are likely. Soundings dry out 
considerably...and temperatures will fall into the lower 40s 
especially across central Kansas Wednesday morning. The remainder of 
the week looks to be dry...with temperatures slightly below normal. 


Schreck 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 
the main concern with this forecast package will be the best 
chance of showers in central Kansas. Latest water vapor loop was 
showing a wrapped up upper level wave in The Rockies. This system 
will slowly eject into the plains during the next couple of days. 
Ahead of this system...we will see some isentropic lift/moisture 
transport mainly in the 305-310k layer in central Kansas beginning 
overnight. This isentropic lift/moisture transport will slowly push 
east and could affect the sln taf site towards daybreak. It appears 
like most of this activity will be showers with some possible 
rumbles of thunder at the rsl taf site after 15z. 


Cox 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 64 79 64 66 / 10 20 50 90 
Hutchinson 65 76 60 62 / 20 40 80 100 
Newton 64 79 63 64 / 10 20 50 100 
Eldorado 64 81 63 73 / 10 10 30 60 
Winfield-kwld 64 81 64 77 / 10 10 20 60 
Russell 63 72 50 52 / 60 90 100 100 
Great Bend 64 72 51 53 / 60 90 100 100 
Salina 65 75 60 61 / 20 50 90 100 
McPherson 65 76 60 61 / 20 40 80 100 
Coffeyville 64 82 63 78 / 0 10 10 20 
Chanute 63 82 62 77 / 0 10 10 30 
Iola 63 82 62 76 / 0 10 10 30 
Parsons-kppf 64 82 62 78 / 0 10 10 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$