Weather

904 
fxus63 kpah 111817 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
117 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 
main issues continue to be with the system next week. 


As a large trough deepens over the western states...an upper 
ridge builds over our region...which should result in above 
normal temperatures through at least Tuesday. 


In the meantime...warm moist advection in the lower levels will 
continue through the middle of next week ahead of the next system. As a 
result...models are still trying to crank a couple of hundredths 
of quantitative precipitation forecast mainly west of the Mississippi River starting Monday 
night. Will likely see an increase in clouds from the additional 
moisture but model soundings showing a mondo cap between 
700-600mb and little to no cape below...so doubt very seriously if 
any thing could get going under those circumstances. 


Slowed down the arrival of the approaching system a bit...but did 
not make major changes due to model disparity. Instability seems 
to be a bit limited so went with isolated thunderstorms. Models 
still not going with much in the way of quantitative precipitation forecast as the moisture is not 
impressive on time height cross sections. 


Models still having difficluties resolving the system next week. 
GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in decent agreement through 12z Monday...after 
that the GFS takes the main system bodily eastward while the European model (ecmwf) 
moves the main system quickly across southern Canada with a weaker 
upper low remaining over the southern rockies. This results in the 
GFS pushing the rain through by late Wednesday night while the 
European model (ecmwf) holds most of the precipitation off until the second system 
arrives about 12 hours later. 


Regardless of when this system pushes though and clears the 
region...high pressure in its wake should keep the region dry 
through the rest of the seven day forecast period. 


&& 


Aviation... 
with more low level moisture in place today...scattered cumulus deck is 
developing across western Kentucky and southern Illinois. This will dissipate toward 
sunset. Otherwise expect more of the same through tomorrow with 
light south-southeasterly winds circulating around high pressure. 
Patchy fog will occur toward daybreak tonight near 
rivers/lakes...but do not expect worse than temporary MVFR visible at 
kcgi. VFR conditions will prevail through the taf forecast period at 
the other terminals. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Public.....Jp 
aviation...my