Weather

102 
fxus63 kind 061053 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
655 am EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Aviation...discussion for 12z tafs. 


Little change in this forecast issuance. 


Upper level ridge of high pressure remained over Indiana providing 
subsidence...mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. 


The upper ridge is expected to hold in place into Tuesday... 
resulting in VFR conditions through the taf period. Once again br 
is not expected tonight as dewpoints remain quite low and weak warm air advection 
is occurring aloft on the backside of the ridge...thus saturation is 
not expected. Some middle clouds are possible late tonight as warm 
advection sets up...but it will not be operationally significant. 


&& 


Previous discussion...progressive upper pattern expeceted to continue for 
the next several days. Upper ridge currently across the area will shift eastward 
to the east CST by Wednesday...while disturbance currently over The Rockies 
moves into the local area by Wednesday. Models in good agreement with the 
main details. Forecast focus centers on probability of precipitation late in the short range period 
associated with incoming system. 


Prox of upper level ridge should keep conds dry through most of Tuesday. Models 
indicate edge of deeper moisture/lift from approching upper trough will be 
getting close to the western border zones towards 00z Wednesday...so will go 
with chance probability of precipitation over the western areas by late in the day Tuesday. By Tuesday 
night...core of 35-45kt low level jet coupled with good moisture advection and 
some weak elevated instability should aid in generating precipitation across the 
area by then...so will go with hi probability of precipitation Tuesday night. Will continue with rather 
hi probability of precipitation into Wednesday as axis of upper trough is prognosticated to be over or just west 
of the local area. 


Low level thicknesses suggest the NGM MOS temperatures are probably too cool 
by the Tuesday/Tuesday night periods. Will bump up the MOS numbers by about 5-8 
degrees in those periods. Remainder of periods look OK. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...jh 
public...jas