Weather

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afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
130 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion...surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high 
pressure over the eastern Great Lakes...providing a dry southeasterly flow of air 
to Indiana. Surface dew point temperatures have come up to the lower and middle 
50s across central Indiana. Visible pictures show only a few stray 
higher clouds across the area. 


Main forecast challenge today will be temperatures. 


Little change will be made to the ongoing forecast. Models remain in 
good agreement and will use a blend. The upper ridge across the eastern 
1/2 of the United States will continue to provide dry...warm and 
pleasant weather to Indiana through the beginning of the work week. 
Time sections and forecast soundings confirm as the column appears 
very dy with subsidence. 


As for temperatures...moisture has returned...but with good rad cooling set 
up in place will still go 1-2 degrees below mavmos for lows...except 
at ind where east wind off of the city will keep temperatures a bit warmer. 


Mavmos highs continue to run a bit high and will go 1-2 degrees below 
mavmos which should be closer to persistence and the current ongoing 
forecast. Minimal temperature advection expected through Monday and the 800 mb 
charts show the cold air bottled up in the northern plains sts...and 
warmest air across the Southern Plains...but not pushing toward Indiana 
with our southeast flow. 


As for the extended...due to the strength of the upper ridge have 
once again slowed the arrival of the approaching cold front by 6 hours 
or so. GFS and European model (ecmwf) suggest the front may closer to the Mississippi 
River on Tuesday morning...leaving Indiana in the warm sector...and 
perhaps susceptible to afternoon convection ahead of the front. A 
better time at this point for precipitation will be Tuesday night and Wednesday 
morning. 


Dry and cooler weather settles across Indiana for Thursday through Sat 
with seasonable temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation...discussion for 18z tafs 


VFR expected through the taf period. Will go with a persistence 
forecast today as fog has yet to form at any of the terminals near 
dawn will continue to leave it out of the tafs. Even though 
dewpoints have increased quite a bit from yesterday time height 
sections from the RUC...which was performing the best compared to 
amdar data...show a dry atms overnight. 


Wind will remain from the southeast around 5-7kts through the taf period. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...Sally 
public...puma