Weather

678 
fxus65 kboi 061557 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
955 am MDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Discussion...fog has dissipated in most areas this morning...except 
for Burns where dense fog has persisted. Will keep fog in the 
forecast for Burns until noon but will take it out of the forecast 
the remainder of the area. Will also remove morning reference of 
sprinkles or light showers. Upper high pressure ridge will 
temporarily build into the area today allowing for warmer afternoon 
temperatures. Updates will be out shortly. 


&& 


Aviation...brief periods of MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration 
will continue through 20z this afternoon. IFR conditions in fog in 
Burns will persist until around 18z. Widespread VFR under scattered-broken 
low/middle level clouds this evening. Light surface winds. Light 
northwesterly winds aloft...becoming westerly by 21z. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
short term...today through Tuesday...a small scale upper wave was 
over southern Twin Falls County as of 3 am. This wave brought light 
rain showers from Burns through Boise /eastward/ overnight and will 
exit S central Idaho 5-6 am. Another upper impulse is racing through 
northern Oregon - The Dalles joined Burns and McCall in measuring a 
measly hundredth overnight and PDT joined Boise with a trace....from 
these two impulses. The northern impulse will lift NE through 
central Idaho early this morning. A broad scale progressive and 
building upper level ridge will move northeast from the coastal 
waters into Idaho this afternoon and evening with gusty SW winds 
developing over Oregon today. The surface system will drag a cold 
front and period of gusty winds with building mild Pacific-origin 
high pressure across the region Tuesday. Better moisture tracks into 
western Canada. Forecast soundings show up to 10f of warming today 
then cooling across the northern zones and mountains which seemed 
reasonable giving the Pacific origin of high pressure /and west-southwest flow 
aloft/ Tuesday. 


Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday...active weather pattern to 
continue through the extended period. Models remain consistent with 
pattern through Wednesday night with zonal flow over the forecast 
area. A cold front will stall out near the Idaho/Nevada border late 
Tuesday and will keep temperatures below normal. Not much chance 
for precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday night with main 
dynamics and moisture north of the forecast area. Will keep the 
small mention of probability of precipitation over northern zones but dry everywhere else. 
Models still showing another deep upper level trough to dig over the 
western section of the country Friday and Saturday...but consensus 
on the track of this trough continues to be a problem. Latest 00z 
model guidance remains split and similar to previous runs with the 
GFS the more progressive with the upper level through east of the 
forecast area by Sunday while the European model (ecmwf) keeps the upper level trough 
over the western section of the country. As mentioned in the 
previous long term discussion models are trending toward the European model (ecmwf) 
solution. Still Mot much confidence in the models to make any big 
changes in the forecast but think a trend in probability of precipitation and temperatures 
closer to the European model (ecmwf) is a good idea. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Discussion...bw 
aviation.....Mt 
previous short term...vm 
previous long term....ja