Weather

647 
fxus63 kdmx 110755 
afddmx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa 
256 am CDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Discussion... 
warm sector encompasses all of Iowa overnight with front just starting 
to edge into the far northwest. South winds and increasing moisture 
helping readings stay above normal during the night. Some middle level 
cloudiness is passing through the northwest near the boundary... 
however much of the state remains clear. 


Large western trough will move only gradually over the next couple of 
days before lifting through the northern plains by Monday. This will 
allow the surface boundary to remain west of the forecast area through 
Sunday. With the warm sector in place and southerly winds 
persisting...temperatures will above normal are forecast through 
Sunday night. The threat for precipitation will be limited through 
early Sunday with little focus for precipitation as primary activity remains 
well west of the state along and west of the surface boundary. As 
closed low begins to lift north through The Rockies on Sunday...the 
front will slowly begin an eastward drift with forcing increasing 
through the day and into Sunday night. Have continued with low probability of precipitation 
in the far west on Sunday for isolated/scattered rain showers...however best threat 
will come during the 24 hour period from late Sunday night into early 
Tuesday morning as the boundary passes through the state. Some weak 
instability will be present to produce isolated thunderstorms during 
this time...but most activity will remain just showers. Cooler air will 
also filter into the state behind the boundary with readings a good 
20 to 25 degrees cooler by Tuesday. There remains some differences 
in the models from Tuesday into Thursday of next week with European model (ecmwf) 
holding additional energy to the west and ejecting it midweek. 00z 
gfsensembles do not buy into that scenario and remain progressive 
with the system. Have decided not to change the forecast much from 
the previous grids given that is still a good 4 to 5 days out. 


&& 


Aviation...11/06z 
VFR conditions continue throughout entire taf period. Gradient to 
remain tighter with southeast winds around 10 miles per hour through the early 
morning hours...then increasing to 10 to 20 miles per hour with some higher 
gusts by middle Saturday morning. 


&& 


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Lee 
long term...cogil 
aviation...mja