Weather

986 
fxus63 kdmx 060542 aaa 
afddmx 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa 
1141 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009 


..updated aviation discussion... 


Short term...tonight 
benign weather will continue tonight with light south to southeast 
winds ahead of the surface trough that will push east through South 
Dakota and Nebraska. With light winds and minimal cloud 
cover...favored the colder GFS MOS guidance overnight...especially 
northern sections with lingering snow cover. 


Long term /Tuesday-Monday/... 
fast moving weather pattern remains in place for the balance of the 
forecast. With west northwest flow with generally split flow and 
more energy south at this time...little active weather expected here for the 
next 5 days. Timing issues remain with run to run consistency still 
lacking but better than yesterday. In the near term temperatures 
look to warm to the middle 30s central for Tuesday as airmass moderates 
with SW flow. With approaching clipper...GFS/Euro/UKMET in better 
agreement regarding the strength of the cold pool dropping south 
with the Arctic front Wednesday morning. Looks like highs will be reached 
before noon Wednesday as front slides into the area and is south of the Iowa 
MO border by 00z. H850 temperatures from -10c to -14c by late afternoon 
with brisk northwest flow with some cumulus possible for the afternoon hours. 
Still some question as to how far west the cold air advances as the 
front slides south. Both UKMET/Euro slowly bring ridge across the 
forecast area while the GFS brings milder air into the state by 
nightfall. Will lean toward slower changes for now. Guidance has 
now come more into line with colder temperatures toward the end of the 
week. Another in a series of fast moving systems crosses the area 
for Friday following the ridge axis on Thursday. Temperatures warm up once 
again and once again today models offer differing solutions as to the 
extent. As the next boundary drops in for the weekend...h850 temperatures 
nosedive into the 10 to 15 below zero range prior to warming up 
Monday. Pattern looks to repeat itself again by early next week with 
potential for some precipitation. 


&& 


Aviation...06/06z 
VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon. Low pressure passing to 
the north of Iowa may bring a band of broken MVFR stratus into the 
fod/mcw areas during the afternoon with little impact farther south. 
Cold front will follow late in the period with gusty northwest winds 
reaching the northwest sections by 06z. 


&& 


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...none 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...Kinney/donavon 
long term...rev