Weather

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
530 am EDT Monday Oct 13 2008 


Short term /today through Wednesday/... 
intermittent sprinkles continuing to race toward the west-northwest across 
central Georgia this morning as a series of weak shortwaves pass 
overhead. A middle/upper tropospheric ridge centered over the 
Tennessee Valley and a surface high in the Carolinas will further 
assert their presence into Georgia by this afternoon bringing an end 
to any lingering sprinkles or light shower activity in west 
central Georgia. 


The deep layer ridge sinking southward will move directly 
over Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday...bringing considerable 
subsidence...a drier airmass...and mostly clear skies. Dewpoints 
in the 40s and 50s and nearly calm winds under generally clear 
skies at night will allow for effective nocturnal radiational 
cooling. Temperatures should rebound quickly both Tuesday and 
Wednesday afternoons as 800 mb temperatures remain in the 15-17 degree c 
range...mild for this time of year. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as the ridge continues to shift southward stronger westerlies 
aloft will approach on Thursday...with a 90kt h2 jet stream 
bringing several weak upper disturbances crossing the Tennessee 
Valley. At the same time...a cold front will be nearing from the 
northwest Thursday night. Longer range models struggling with the 
strength and eventual evolution of a system still out in the data 
sparse Pacific...which is expected to move into the Pacific northwest on 
Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) depicts this as a rather sharp upper trough 
just to our north by late week which would lead to better 
coverage of precipitation as the cold front passes through Georgia on 
Friday. The most recent runs of the GFS have backed off earlier 
solutions which had looked more like the wetter European. Should 
see at least some isolated to scattered showers ahead of frontal passage 
and...depending on which scenario wins out...possibly some 
thunderstorms Friday. Next weekend looks cooler and dry with near 
or slightly below normal temperatures as high pressure settles 
into Georgia from the north. 


&& 
Rrh 


Aviation... 
continued easterly flow with low clouds this morning. Drier air is 
beginning to filter in from the NE so will see these low ceilings 
lift through the day and eventually scattered and clear out by 20z-23z. 
Winds will continue out of the east at 10-15kts this morning and 
slowly subside as ridge center moves SW down the eastern Seaboard. 
Should see winds in the 3-7kt range by 22z. There are some isolated 
light showers/areas of sprinkles around the area but as the drier 
air moves in they will dissipate as well. Any precipitation should 
be over with by 14z. These light showers are creating some visibility 
issues with some observation locations going down to 3sm. This 
should not be an issue after sunrise. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Athens 78 53 85 51 90 / 5 0 0 0 5 
Atlanta 78 57 83 56 86 / 10 0 0 0 5 
Blairsville 73 49 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 5 
Cartersville 78 51 84 46 87 / 5 0 0 0 5 
Columbus 80 62 86 57 90 / 20 0 0 0 5 
Gainesville 77 56 83 56 85 / 5 0 0 0 5 
Macon 80 55 87 51 88 / 20 0 0 0 5 
Rome 82 57 86 48 88 / 10 0 0 0 5 
Peachtree City 78 53 83 45 87 / 20 0 0 0 5 
Vidalia 80 57 85 53 89 / 10 0 0 0 5 


&& 


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$