Weather

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fxus62 ktae 101831 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
231 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Short term (tonight through Sunday night)...upper low continues 
to spin off the northeast Florida coast this afternoon with weak 
surface trough over the peninsula. Plenty of dry air aloft with 
moisture trapped below 800mb. The associated low cloudiness is 
gradually burning off this afternoon. With low level moisture 
likely to remain in place overnight...expect to see a return of 
the low clouds with patchy fog over the eastern zones. 


On Saturday...as deep trough develops over western Continental U.S. And ridge 
develops over the east...the upper low will be forced to 
retrograde back to the west across the state. Associated weak surface 
trough will also shift west through the weekend. As surface trough 
moves back west and low level convergence increases...expect to 
see showers move into the eastern zones Saturday afternoon then 
increase in coverage for Sunday. Heavy rain not expected with deep 
moisture being limited. Mostly cloudy skies will help to keep 
temperatures close to seasonal norms. 


Long term (monday through friday)...the GFS and 12 UTC run of the 
European model (ecmwf) are in very good agreement. The upper level pattern across 
the Continental U.S. Will be highly amplified at the beginning of the period 
with deep layer ridging over the eastern U.S. The upper flow will 
gradually flatten through Thursday with weak troughing developing 
over the eastern U.S. On Friday. On Monday...with the surface high 
centered over the Middle Atlantic States a few showers will be possible 
across the Florida zones due to the strong easterly flow bringing in 
moisture from the Atlantic. The surface high is forecast to drop 
south and ridge further westward through Thursday. This in 
conjunction with the upper ridge being suppressed south will bring a 
deep dry airmass to the local region. On Friday...a cold front with 
approach from the north. The GFS pushes the front through the County Warning Area 
late Friday with little moisture associated with it. The European model (ecmwf) cuts 
the front east to west across our Georgia/Alabama zones Friday evening with 
low quantitative precipitation forecast amounts for those zones. Temperatures will continue to be above 
climatology. 






&& 


Aviation...ceilings have risen to MVFR heights across much of the area. 
Based on satellite and surface observation trends, will forecast improvement 
to VFR this afternoon. Scattered clouds will linger this evening, 
followed by a gradual downward trend in ceilings and visibilities toward 
daybreak Saturday. Inland terminals can expect prevailing MVFR by 
08z, with a period of IFR-LIFR ceilings and MVFR-occasional IFR visibilities through 
13z Saturday. Numerical MOS and conditional surface pressure deficit 
forecasts support this scenario, with ceilings and visibilities slowly improving 
after 15z. 




&& 


Marine...gradient will remain weak overnight before slowly 
tightening during the day Saturday as trough of low pressure 
slides west and high pressure builds down the eastern Seaboard. 
Exercise caution conditions possible by Saturday night with 
advisory conditions by late Sunday. The tight gradient is expected 
to keep winds near advisory levels through early next 
week...especially over the offshore legs. 




&& 


Fire weather...ample low level moisture will keep afternoon relative humidity 
values above critical levels through the weekend. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 65 82 67 84 69 / 10 10 20 40 20 
Panama City 69 82 71 84 71 / 0 10 10 20 20 
Dothan 63 81 65 81 65 / 0 10 20 30 20 
Albany 64 81 66 80 66 / 10 10 30 50 20 
Valdosta 64 81 66 82 66 / 10 30 40 50 20 
Cross City 65 83 66 86 67 / 10 20 30 50 20 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Camp/jamski/Barry