Weather

432 
fxus62 kjax 101811 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
211 PM EDT Friday Oct 10 2008 


Synopsis...stacked low has moved about 10 more miles offshore 
since this the morning afd. Representation on the water vapor and 
RUC streamlines still looks about the same as this morning. Thunderstorm 
activity has shifted farther offshore...now about 70 nm offshore 
kdab. Low ceilings from this morning mostly thinned out to be replaced 
by scattered-broken cumulus field and some light to moderate showers this afternoon. 
Temperatures range from the middle 70s in the cloudier areas of our north zones 
to the middle 80s over inland NE Florida. Winds are light and generally NE 
over the north 2/3 of the area and northwest over the S 1/3. Dew points 
remain in the upper 60s. 


Short term...models have come into more agreement with the slow 
southeast...then SW...movement of the low. Low is prognosticated to slowly fill 
over the next 48 hours...ending up over the east Gomex by the end of 
the weekend. Moisture field wrapping around north side of low...in 
concert with strengthening high over New England...should allow a 
return of scattered shower activity to the area this weekend. High 
pressure will shift S by the beginning of next week...with lighter 
east flow and drier conditions. 


Have included patchy to areas of fog tonight. Chances of fog 
should decrease thereafter as low-level flow increases. MOS temperatures 
are in fair agreement...and a general blend has been used. Have 
tweaked maximum temperatures up about a degree the next few days. 


Long term...have made few changes to the extended package. Probability of precipitation 
should remain low as deeper east flow shifts farther S. Temperatures will 
remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Next front approaches from 
the north by the end of the week...but may stall well north of the 
County Warning Area. 


&& 


Aviation...tempo rain showers forecast in all tafs this afternoon. Expect a 
chance of IFR conditions late tonight at gnv where suspect clouds 
will thin more than along the coast. MVFR possible at coastal sites. 
A chance of coastal rain showers returns early Sat morning especially at ssi as 
coastal trough moves inland. 


&& 


Marine...prevailing east-northeast flow over the waters Saturday as coastal 
trough breaks down as strong high pressure builds north of the 
waters. Raised a Small Craft Advisory for both near/offshore legs beginning early sun 
as winds near 20 kts and seas build. Strong onshore flow is expected 
to persist through Tuesday...then conditions will improve Wednesday and Thursday as 
high pressure builds over the area. A weak front will near the 
region Friday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 65 80 66 80 / 20 40 40 40 
ssi 68 79 70 78 / 20 40 50 40 
jax 67 82 69 80 / 20 40 30 40 
sgj 69 83 73 83 / 20 30 30 40 
gnv 66 85 68 84 / 20 30 20 30 
ocf 66 86 69 86 / 20 30 20 30 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 


Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 5 am sun to 2 PM Tuesday for Altamaha 
Sound Georgia to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm offshore. 


Small Craft Advisory from 10 am sun to 2 PM Tuesday for Altamaha 
Sound Georgia to Flagler Beach Florida out 20 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Carroll/enyedi/Keegan