Weather

736 
fxus62 kcae 071748 
afdcae 
area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
145 PM EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak surface trough will cross the area this afternoon. Moisture 
will increase Monday into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold 
front. Another cold front approaches the area on Friday while 
Hurricane Ike moves into the Gulf of Mexico. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
dry air aloft continued to filter into the area from the west as 
an upper level disturbance approaches from the west. A weak 
surface boundary will also linger over the area. Isolated 
convection still look possible as airmass continue to destabilizes 
under mainly sunny skies. Temperatures in the low-middle 90s still in order. 
Full sun. Any convection will dissipate with loss of daytime 
heating. 


&& 


Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/... 
our region to remain under a flat upper ridge. Diurnal heating 
leading to a slight chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms 
Monday. An approaching front...along with increasing atmospheric 
moisture...will allow for increasing rain chances Tuesday into 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Saturday/... 
NHC official forecasts bring Hurricane Ike northwest into the central 
Gulf of Mexico by Thursday...with considerable uncertainty with 
regards to where it GOES after that. It appears that the front 
will remain stalled near our region. Will maintain going forecast 
with a chance of showers/thunderstorms each day. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/... 


Weak surface trough over the area this afternoon with a weak upper 
level disturbance also crossing the area. Already seeing isolated 
convection developing. Included thunderstorms in the vicinity and cumulonimbus in tafs since convection 
will not be widespread. Convection will diminish with sunset. 
Radiational fog potential application and statistical guidance 
suggesting IFR fog for kags/kogb and MVFR fog for kcae/kcub/kdnl. 
Near calm winds overnight with mainly clear skies and low level 
moisture are favorable for fog formation. So, have included IFR/MVFR 
fog after 08z. Expect VFR conditions by 14z Monday with isolated 
afternoon convection developing once again. 


Extended aviation outlook...potential exist for scattered convection 
Tuesday through Friday. Also, moist easterly flow will make 
possible stratus/fog to develop during the early morning. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 


&& 


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