Weather

941 
fxus62 kjax 061407 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
1005 am EDT Monday Oct 6 2008 


Synopsis...upper level ridge extends across S Florida with trough along 
the southeast US Seaboard. Another ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle to 
the Ohio Valley. Dry air aloft continues over most of the County 
Warning Area with old frontal band of deeper moisture from the Atlantic 
across central and S Florida and into the Gomex. Upper trough just east of the 
area acting to suppress frontal band S of the area. Inverted surface 
trough is located just east of the NE Florida and southeast Georgia coast. 


Patches of middle clouds are showing up on the morning's 1st visible Sat 
pictures with low cloudiness and convergence showers extending from the 
NE Florida and southeast Georgia coast out into the Atlantic. A few thunderstorms have developed 
as well...mainly over the Gulf Stream and southeast of the area. 


Due to the dry air above 600 mb...deeper thunderstorm activity will be isolated 
today until middle layers of the atmosphere can moisten. However... 
instability is high with convective available potential energy approaching 2000 j/kg...and showers 
and isolated storms should fill in through the afternoon...particularly across 
NE Florida. Extent of precipitation will depend on how long dry air stays in 
place and where surface trough is located. Think probability of precipitation farther north may be a bit 
overdone and will likely reduce 10 to 20 percent in that area. 


&& 


Aviation...timing of MVFR conditions and precipitation will continue to be 
problematic through the day. Convergence band appears to be forming off 
the coast of Jacksonville...and this will likely keep at least tempo 
showers through the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon. Cloud 
cover is delaying onset of gusty winds. 


&& 


Marine...forecast still appears to be on track with increasing winds 
and seas reaching advisory criteria this afternoon. 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM Wednesday for 
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Flagler Beach Florida 20 nm to 60 nm 
offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Carroll/Walker