Weather

601 
fxus62 kmfl 071140 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
740 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Aviation...light offshore drainage flow at sunrise this morning 
will become NE around 10 knots by 13z-14z as ridge shifts north and pressure 
gradient begins to increase ahead of Hurricane Ike. Only very 
light showers seen over western Bahamas this morning as airmass 
remains relatively dry. Therefore, only vcsh mentioned for East 
Coast terminals this afternoon with NE winds increasing to 15 knots. 
Kapf should see a weak sea breeze develop by middle afternoon, but 
not enough deep moisture to set off any showers/tstms. /Molleda 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 241 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008/ 


Discussion...water vapor loop continues to indicate Atlantic high pressure 
ridge moving SW and across S fla ahead of Hurricane Ike which is 
approaching east Cuba. This high pressure into early next week begins to 
weaken and move NE as Ike moves across Cuba...as current NHC track 
forecasts...and a broad upper trough across the north tier of the U.S. 
Begins to lift out to the NE. The ridge now over the Gulf Coast 
states appears to weaken and Ike move northwest into the Gulf after leaving 
Cuba. As Ike continues to move northwest away from S fla...the Atlantic ridge 
begins to nudge to the west again. 


For the short term...today through Tuesday...though the forecast for S 
fla from NHC beginning to look more optimistic...all interests in S 
fla though should continue to monitor the progress of Ike. Otherwise 
.Kamx 88-d Doppler radar beginning to detect some shower activity 
near Andros Island. As winds gradually begin to shift from east to more 
NE...increasing atmospheric moisture and some erosion of stable air 
over S fla...should allow some showers to move from the Atlantic onto 
the S fla coast and inland to some extent this afternoon and to 
-night. On Monday/Monday night and Tuesday...NE winds will continue to in 
-crease. Rain bands rotating about Ike will lead to squally weather 
with tropical storm force wind gusts possible in some of the heavier 
rain bands...affecting mainly the S and west half of the S fla penin 
-Sula. No highlights on the horizon at the moment but as conditions 
develop...sustained winds affecting portions of S fla may trigger 
some wind advisories. Also...right now...locally heavy rains could 
easily lead to flooding of low lying and flood-prone areas as S fla 
has not totally dried out. Right now thinking is toward urban 
flooding conditions but this could change with any change in Ike. 
These potential situations will be monitored. East area maximum/min temperatures 
should be near norms today/tonight with maximum temperatures a shade cooler Monday 
due to increasing clouds/rain. Maximum/min temperatures west should be a bit 
higher due to the NE wind flow. GFS used for all guidance as model 
closest to NHC Ike track. Zone forecast product package delayed until NHC guidance 
received and ingested. 


Extended forecast...Tuesday through Sat...chances of precipitation will 
gradually subside though the middle to latter parts of the week as Ike 
moves well into the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure from the Atlantic 
nudges westward. 


Marine...gradual NE wind increase begins this afternoon into 
tonight as circulation about Ike begins to be felt over the S fla 
area. Winds over 20 knots will occur in the Atlantic waters after 
midnight tonight...Lake Okeechobee by early Monday morning...and in 
the Gulf waters by middle morning Monday. In the Atlantic waters and Lake 
Okeechobee these conditions will persist through most of Wednesday and in 
the Gulf waters through Thursday. Beach conditions on the East Coast will 
deteriorate as well tonight into middle week and on the West Coast Monday 
into late in the week. All of course depends on the actual track of 
Ike. Coastal waters forecast package delayed until NHC guidance received and ingested. 


Fire weather...no concerns at this time. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 90 80 86 80 / 20 20 50 50 
Fort Lauderdale 90 81 87 81 / 20 20 60 50 
Miami 91 80 87 81 / 20 20 60 50 
Naples 93 76 94 75 / - 10 40 40 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...15/Jr 
short term/aviation...59/rm