Weather

231 
fxus62 ktae 071312 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
912 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Discussion...12 UTC surface analysis shows the remnants of Hanna 
moving into the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extends along the 
East Coast of the United States from eastern mass all the way into 
central North Carolina. This front is pulling up stationary from 
South Carolina into south central Alabama. Hurricane Ike was 
centered over the extreme southern Bahamas as a category four 
hurricane with winds near 135 miles per hour. For more on Ike...please see the 
latest NHC advisories. 500 mb analysis at 12 UTC shows the presence 
of the ridge off the southeast coast. The western periphery of this 
ridge extends into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. One trough is moving 
through the the upper Midwest with another one coming into the 
Pacific northwest. 


Vapor imagery shows and the 12 UTC ktae sounding confirms that drier 
middle and upper level air is working into the region. The precipitable 
water was 1.76 inches. While middle level drying is occurring and will 
likely gradually continue throughout the day...especially across our 
western zones...there is very little additional eastward push to the 
drier air moving in. A modified surface parcel of 94/71 yields 
around 2400 j/kg of SBCAPE...moderately unstable. 


Given the thermodynamic environment...expect today to be somewhat 
similar to Saturday with thunderstorms more numerous in the eastern 
zones and developing later in the day based on sea breeze and 
mesoscale boundary interactions. The latest sref probabilities match 
well with the current forecast reasoning and the inherited 
forecast...so I see no reason to make any modifications to our 
ongoing pop forecast...which favors higher probability of precipitation in the east. 
Temperatures may be a tad on the cool side as temperatures are 
already warming into the upper 70s/low 80s as much of the fog/low 
ceilings have dissipated. Will make some minor adjustments here...but no 
other significant changes planned. Will update the zones to remove 
morning wording a little later. Have a great day! 


&& 


Marine...a weak pressure gradient will continue to keep winds light 
and seas low over the coastal waters into Monday. 


&& 


Aviation...residual moisture...light winds and high dew points 
combined to provide environment for low ceilings and fog this morning. 
Areas MVFR ceilings and local IFR ceilings...mainly kaby will begin to slowly 
lift after 13z. Local MVFR ceilings to continue until 15z. Then...VFR 
conditions will return into tonight outside of scattered afternoon 
thunderstorms. Prevailing surface winds will be less than 10 knots. After 
08z expect areas of MVFR visibilities with isolated IFR visibilities especially at 
kvld. 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...block 
rest of discussion...Godsey