Weather

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fxus62 ktbw 110631 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
231 am EDT Sat Oct 11 2008 


Short term (today - monday)...upper low/inverted surface trough off the 
Georgia/South Carolina coasts early this morning is forecast by models 
to weaken and retrograde west southwest across the Northern Peninsula 
later tonight then into the northeast Gulf on Sunday as it slides underneath 
strengthening high pressure over the eastern sea board. Dry subsident 
air mass via model cross-sections on the western side of the above mentioned 
features should support a good deal of sunshine today with only a slight 
chance of showers (pops 20-30% coast to inland) during the afternoon. 
Ample sunshine should allow for above normal temperatures with readings 
climbing into the upper 80s in most locations. Light northeast flow 
and adequate ground moisture will likely support some patchy fog early 
this morning and again Sunday morning...so will depict in the grids/zones. 


As the upper low/inverted trough move west later tonight into Sunday 
the forecast area will come under a more favorable ascending side of 
these features. This combined with a slow increase in moisture within 
a deepening and strengthening east to northeast wind flow around building 
high pressure over the middle Atlantic region will lead to an increase 
in shower and isolated storm coverage (pops ~20% tonight and 30-40% 
on sunday) through the period. 


On Monday strong deep layered easterly wind flow around the strong high 
pressure over the middle Atlantic region will make for breezy conditions 
across the forecast area. Shallow depth of moisture (mainly below 
700mb) and drier air advecting in from the northeast in the middle/upper 
levels via model cross-sections should support isolated to scattered 
fast moving low topped showers (pops 20 north and 30% central and 
south) across the forecast area...with temperatures remaining a few 
degrees above normal. 


&& 


Long term (mon night - friday)...warm and dry ridging will continue 
across the area through the period with the surface high center gradually 
settling southwest over the region through Wednesday. An upper trough 
and surface cold front will then move through the northeastern states 
as the ridge flattens out across Florida through Friday. Dry air under 
the ridge will keep only isolated rain chances in place through the 
period. Temperatures will be above normal through the period with highs 
in the upper 80s-around 90 and lows in the middle-upper 60s north to 
around 70-lower 70s central and south. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some 
light patchy fog and a few MVFR/IFR ceilings may develop for a few hours 
just before sunrise. A sea breeze will develop in the late 
morning/early afternoon keeping rain chances isolated for this 
afternoon and any development should remain inland from the 
terminals. 


&& 


Marine...northeast to east winds ~10 knots near shore and 10-15 knots 
offshore will prevail over the Gulf waters today through early 
Sunday. Strengthening surface high pressure to the north of the waters 
with a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase winds/seas 
Sunday night through Wednesday with east winds increasing into the 
exercise caution range (15-20 knots sea building to 3-5 feet) Sunday 
night...then ~20 knots with higher gusts offshore and 15-20 knots near 
shore Monday through Wednesday with small craft conditions likely. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 89 73 88 73 / 20 20 30 10 
fmy 89 74 88 73 / 20 20 30 10 
gif 89 72 88 73 / 30 20 30 10 
srq 89 71 89 73 / 20 20 30 10 
bkv 88 68 88 72 / 20 20 30 10 
spg 87 75 87 75 / 20 20 30 10 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine...jcm 
long term/aviation...jlc