Weather

025 
fxus62 ktbw 070528 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
128 am EDT sun Sep 7 2008 


Short term (tonight - tuesday)...one more full day of tranquil 
weather conditions before moisture from Hurricane Ike begins to 
affect southern sections late Monday with isolated convection 
beginning to develop. Temperatures will remain above normal today 
with a relatively light wind flow pattern. Cross-sectional data and 
precipitable water values depict a sharp increase in layered moisture on Tuesday 
as the broad circulation of Hurricane Ike over western Cuba will 
wrap around an increasing chance for rainfall...as well as a 
tightening northeast-east pressure gradient from north to south over 
the forecast area. No significant changes made to the ongoing 
forecast other than increasing the chance for rainfall on Tuesday on 
the leading edge of the sharp moisture advection. 


Long term (tuesday night - saturday)...forecast becoming clearer as 
the majority of the models as well as the NHC forecast keep tc Ike 
well south and west of the forecast area. Therefore the main effect 
would be an increase in winds and seas over the coastal waters along 
with a minor increase in tides similar to Gustav during the second 
half of the week. Otherwise we should still see an increase in 
moisture during the period which will lead to at least a chance of 
showers and thunderstorms each day. 


Temperatures should be near normal through the period with daytime 
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and overnight lows mostly in the 
70s. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected through tonight. 


&& 


Marine...a ridge of high pressure will remain in control for one 
more day before weakening on Monday as Hurricane Ike tracks well to 
the south of Florida. The broad circulation of Ike will back winds 
toward the northeast and east through middle week with tropical storm 
force winds possible over southern and offshore waters. An 
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop by late 
Monday and through middle week. Mariners should closely monitor the 
future track of Hurricane Ike and stay tuned to the latest forecasts 
from the National Hurricane Center. 


&& 


Fire weather...no fire weather concerns expected as moisture values 
will increase given the track of Hurricane Ike to the south and west 
of the area through the period. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 93 77 92 77 / 10 10 20 20 
fmy 93 75 93 77 / 10 10 30 20 
gif 95 75 93 76 / 10 10 20 20 
srq 92 75 92 77 / 10 10 20 20 
bkv 94 71 92 74 / 10 10 20 20 
spg 93 80 92 80 / 10 10 20 20 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...lamarre 
long term...close 
special soundings for Hur Ike...Barron