Weather

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
914 PM CST Monday Jan 5 2009 


Update...fairly sharp thermal gradient Marks a stalled surface frontal 
zone positioned from the middle Atlantic...southwest through central 
Alabama/Mississippi and Louisiana to off the Texas coast. East of this 
boundary...the forecast area is under the influence of an 
unseasonably warm and moist airmass. First item is fog. Southerly 
flow is a little bit higher along the coast than what we observed 24 
hours ago. This is mitigating fog formation. However...given the 
degree of surface moisture with dewpoints near 66 degrees and water 
temperatures near the coast around 59 degrees...could see some patchy 
advective fog creeping northward over the southern zones and have 
added this to the gridded forecast for tonight. Probabilities of 
precipitation forecast to increase during the predawn hours Tuesday 
especially over the far northwest zones as these areas are closer to 
the faster high level southwest flow and potential of better lift 
from middle level impulses passing through these areas. Will not 
make any changes to nighttime lows on this update. 


Second item is an update to the hazardous weather outlook...providing 
specifics on timing the passage of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. 
Make sure weather radios are in good working order and set to tone 
alert for potential watches and warnings through the course of the 
day. 


Recent rains received over the last week mainly east of Interstate 
65 from century Florida to Evergreen Alabama and little in the way 
of dry weather has caused antecedent soil moisture levels to be high. 
Thus...rains we expect on Tuesday could lead to runoff and potential 
flooding over low lying areas and those areas subject to poor drainage 
of storm water. Considering this...flash flood watches remain in 
effect beginning Tuesday afternoon for zones north of the immediate 
coast. /10 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 63 74 53 61 / 30 80 90 10 
Pensacola 63 74 54 64 / 20 40 90 20 
Destin 64 74 57 62 / 10 40 80 20 
Evergreen 59 74 51 58 / 30 70 90 20 
Waynesboro 59 68 46 56 / 60 100 90 20 
Camden 59 73 50 57 / 60 90 90 20 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...Flash Flood Watch from noon Tuesday to 6 am Wednesday for the 
following zones: Butler...Choctaw...Clarke...Conecuh... 
Covington...Crenshaw...Escambia...Monroe...upper Baldwin... 
upper Mobile...Washington...and Wilcox. 


Florida...Flash Flood Watch from noon Tuesday to 6 am Wednesday for the 
following zones: inland Escambia...inland Okaloosa...and 
inland Santa Rosa. 


MS...Flash Flood Watch from noon Tuesday to 6 am Wednesday for the 
following zones: George...Greene...Perry...stone...and 
Wayne. 


GM...none. 
&& 


$$